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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Verona

T U S T T

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 38%

28%

48%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

64%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,16 xG 1,37

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 17. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	17	6	3	+35	+26.9	57
2	Napoli	26	17	5	4	+21	+15.3	56
3	Atalanta	25	15	6	4	+28	+19.1	51
4	Lazio	26	14	5	7	+13	+12.3	47
5	Juventus	25	11	13	1	+21	+11.6	46
6	Fiorentina	25	12	6	7	+14	+5.8	42
7	Milan	25	11	8	6	+11	+17.5	41
8	Bologna	25	10	11	4	+7	+7.4	41
9	Roma	25	10	7	8	+7	+5.8	37
10	Udinese	26	10	6	10	-4	-9.6	36
11	Torino	26	7	10	9	-3	-12.3	31
12	Genoa	26	7	9	10	-10	-5.7	30
13	Como	26	7	7	12	-9	+0.9	28
14	Cagliari	25	6	7	12	-13	-7.5	25
15	Lecce	26	6	7	13	-24	-16.7	25
16	Parma	26	5	8	13	-13	-14.0	23
17	Verona	25	7	2	16	-28	-14.4	23
18	Empoli	25	4	9	12	-16	-12.6	21
19	Venezia	26	3	8	15	-19	-16.2	17
20	Monza	25	2	8	15	-18	-13.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+15	+11.7	30
2	Napoli	12	9	1	2	+10	+12.5	28
3	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+12	+9.1	25
4	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
5	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+13	+10.7	24
6	Milan	13	6	6	1	+11	+11.7	24
7	Fiorentina	13	7	3	3	+7	+7.0	24
8	Bologna	12	6	5	1	+9	+10.2	23
9	Roma	12	7	1	4	+12	+7.1	22
10	Udinese	13	6	2	5	+1	-5.0	20
11	Como	13	5	3	5	+0	+2.0	18
12	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
13	Genoa	13	3	6	4	-2	-0.9	15
14	Parma	14	4	3	7	-3	-3.3	15
15	Cagliari	13	4	3	6	-7	-0.6	15
16	Lecce	13	3	5	5	-13	-4.0	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	12	3	1	8	-19	-4.9	10
19	Empoli	12	1	5	6	-9	-4.2	8
20	Monza	13	1	4	8	-7	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.8	28
2	Inter	13	8	3	2	+20	+15.2	27
3	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.4	27
4	Lazio	13	7	1	5	+5	+3.3	22
5	Juventus	12	5	6	1	+9	+2.5	21
6	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+7	-1.1	18
7	Bologna	13	4	6	3	-2	-2.8	18
8	Milan	12	5	2	5	+0	+5.9	17
9	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-4.6	16
10	Roma	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.3	15
11	Genoa	13	4	3	6	-8	-4.8	15
12	Torino	13	3	5	5	-3	-6.2	14
13	Empoli	13	3	4	6	-7	-8.4	13
14	Verona	13	4	1	8	-9	-9.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-11	-12.7	11
16	Cagliari	12	2	4	6	-6	-7.0	10
17	Como	13	2	4	7	-9	-1.1	10
18	Parma	12	1	5	6	-10	-10.7	8
19	Monza	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.7	7
20	Venezia	13	0	4	9	-16	-14.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.