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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Newcastle

S S T U S

2–0

Full-time

Burnley

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

26%

30%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

48%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

56%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Burnley 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	20	6	1	+44	66
2	Man City	27	21	2	4	+54	65
3	Tottenham	27	20	0	7	+28	60
4	Arsenal	27	16	5	6	+18	53
5	Man United	27	15	7	5	+17	52
6	Chelsea	26	15	5	6	+16	50
7	Watford	27	11	7	9	+4	40
8	Wolves	28	11	7	10	+0	40
9	Everton	28	10	6	12	+0	36
10	West Ham	27	10	6	11	-5	36
11	Leicester	28	10	5	13	-5	35
12	Bournemouth	27	10	4	13	-10	34
13	Crystal Palace	27	8	6	13	-4	30
14	Burnley	27	8	6	13	-17	30
15	Newcastle	27	7	7	13	-10	28
16	Brighton	27	7	6	14	-12	27
17	Cardiff	28	7	4	17	-30	25
18	Southampton	27	5	9	13	-18	24
19	Fulham	27	4	5	18	-35	17
20	Huddersfield	28	3	5	20	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	0	1	+38	39
2	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+28	35
3	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+19	35
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+12	27
6	Man United	13	7	5	1	+9	26
7	Bournemouth	14	7	4	3	+8	25
8	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+1	21
9	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
10	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
11	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Brighton	13	5	4	4	+1	19
13	Leicester	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Burnley	13	5	2	6	-6	17
15	Cardiff	15	5	2	8	-15	17
16	Newcastle	14	5	1	8	-4	16
17	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
18	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Southampton	13	2	6	5	-6	12
20	Huddersfield	15	2	2	11	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	14	11	0	3	+16	33
2	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
4	Man United	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Chelsea	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Watford	14	5	5	4	+5	20
7	Wolves	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Leicester	14	5	3	6	-3	18
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-1	17
11	Everton	14	4	3	7	+0	15
12	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Burnley	14	3	4	7	-11	13
14	Newcastle	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-12	12
16	Bournemouth	13	3	0	10	-18	9
17	Brighton	14	2	2	10	-13	8
18	Cardiff	13	2	2	9	-15	8
19	Huddersfield	13	1	3	9	-20	6
20	Fulham	14	0	2	12	-26	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.