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League Cup

Referee: T Robinson

Stoke

T T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Fleetwood Town

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Fleetwood Town

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

3,5

2,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

21 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 2. · Fleetwood Town 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Preston	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Leyton Orient	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Coventry	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
18	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
39	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
40	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
42	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
53	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
54	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
55	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
32	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
34	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
49	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
50	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
51	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
49	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
55	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.