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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Crystal Palace

U U S S U

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 10. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
3	Liverpool	12	7	4	1	+24	25
4	West Ham	12	7	2	3	+9	23
5	Arsenal	13	7	2	4	-2	23
6	Wolves	12	6	1	5	+0	19
7	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	-6	19
8	Man United	12	5	2	5	-1	17
9	Brighton	12	4	5	3	-2	17
10	Crystal Palace	12	3	7	2	+1	16
11	Everton	12	4	3	5	-3	15
12	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-5	15
13	Southampton	12	3	5	4	-3	14
14	Brentford	12	3	4	5	-1	13
15	Watford	12	4	1	7	-4	13
16	Aston Villa	12	4	1	7	-4	13
17	Leeds	12	2	5	5	-8	11
18	Burnley	12	1	6	5	-6	9
19	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-20	8
20	Newcastle	13	0	6	7	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+14	13
3	Man City	6	4	1	1	+13	13
4	Liverpool	6	3	3	0	+9	12
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	-2	12
6	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+5	10
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Brighton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Watford	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Leeds	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-6	4
20	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Wolves	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+0	10
7	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Leicester	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
12	Watford	6	2	0	4	+0	6
13	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Leeds	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Everton	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-14	4
18	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-7	3
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.