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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Southampton

T T S U S

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

40%

70%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 14. · Aston Villa 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	10	8	1	1	+23	25
2	Liverpool	10	6	4	0	+21	22
3	Man City	10	6	2	2	+14	20
4	West Ham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Man United	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	-1	17
7	Wolves	10	5	1	4	+1	16
8	Brighton	10	4	4	2	+0	16
9	Tottenham	10	5	0	5	-7	15
10	Everton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Brentford	10	3	3	4	+0	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	2	6	2	-1	12
14	Southampton	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Aston Villa	10	3	1	6	-5	10
16	Watford	10	3	1	6	-6	10
17	Leeds	10	2	4	4	-7	10
18	Burnley	10	1	4	5	-6	7
19	Newcastle	10	0	4	6	-12	4
20	Norwich	10	0	2	8	-22	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+14	12
2	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+5	9
5	Everton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
7	Crystal Palace	5	1	4	0	+3	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Man United	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Wolves	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Burnley	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
18	Watford	5	1	1	3	-7	4
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+16	13
2	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Leicester	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Tottenham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.