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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Watford

T T U T S

2–2

Full-time

Leeds

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/36 matches

Win Ø 48%

32%

64%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,70 xG 1,00

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Leeds 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	39	25	9	5	+32	+23.6	84
2	Leicester	38	26	4	8	+40	+30.7	82
3	Leeds	36	23	7	6	+40	+32.0	76
4	Southampton	35	20	8	7	+23	+28.1	68
5	West Brom	37	19	10	8	+26	+6.3	67
6	Norwich	37	19	7	11	+18	+1.6	64
7	Coventry	38	16	12	10	+18	+11.4	60
8	Preston	38	17	8	13	-2	-10.5	59
9	Hull	38	16	10	12	+5	+6.0	58
10	Middlesbrough	39	16	7	16	+1	+11.0	55
11	Cardiff	39	16	5	18	-10	-22.5	53
12	Sunderland	39	15	6	18	+5	+8.3	51
13	Bristol City	39	14	8	17	-2	-3.5	50
14	Watford	38	12	12	14	+2	+1.0	48
15	Swansea	39	12	11	16	-10	-9.1	47
16	Millwall	39	11	11	17	-14	-12.3	44
17	Stoke	39	12	8	19	-16	-3.7	44
18	QPR	39	11	10	18	-13	-5.9	43
19	Blackburn	39	11	9	19	-14	-6.8	42
20	Plymouth	39	10	11	18	-9	-17.9	41
21	Birmingham	39	10	9	20	-18	-9.4	39
22	Huddersfield	39	8	15	16	-21	-10.5	39
23	Sheffield Weds	39	11	6	22	-31	-8.6	39
24	Rotherham	39	3	11	25	-50	-39.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	4	0	+28	+21.8	46
2	Ipswich	19	14	4	1	+24	+22.4	46
3	Norwich	19	14	2	3	+21	+10.0	44
4	West Brom	18	13	3	2	+19	+9.7	42
5	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
6	Southampton	18	11	3	4	+20	+20.1	36
7	Preston	20	10	4	6	+0	-4.5	34
8	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
9	Sunderland	19	10	1	8	+7	+7.1	31
10	Bristol City	20	9	3	8	+3	+0.1	30
11	Cardiff	20	9	3	8	-1	-10.1	30
12	Plymouth	19	8	4	7	+5	-6.9	28
13	Hull	20	7	7	6	+5	+6.8	28
14	Birmingham	19	7	6	6	+2	-0.5	27
15	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-3	+2.0	26
16	Middlesbrough	19	7	4	8	-1	+8.9	25
17	Swansea	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.3	23
18	Blackburn	20	6	5	9	-5	+1.6	23
19	Millwall	20	6	5	9	-11	-3.8	23
20	Huddersfield	20	5	7	8	-7	-2.8	22
21	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-10	-0.9	22
22	Watford	19	5	6	8	+3	+8.6	21
23	QPR	20	5	6	9	-7	+0.8	21
24	Rotherham	19	3	7	9	-7	-10.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	20	13	3	4	+18	+15.2	42
2	Ipswich	20	11	5	4	+8	+1.2	38
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	18	9	3	6	+12	+10.2	30
5	Middlesbrough	20	9	3	8	+2	+2.1	30
6	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
7	Coventry	20	8	4	8	+6	+3.9	28
8	Watford	19	7	6	6	-1	-7.6	27
9	West Brom	19	6	7	6	+7	-3.4	25
10	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	-6.1	25
11	Swansea	20	6	6	8	-6	-9.4	24
12	Cardiff	19	7	2	10	-9	-12.4	23
13	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-6	-2.7	22
14	QPR	19	6	4	9	-6	-6.7	22
15	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-3	-8.5	21
16	Sunderland	20	5	5	10	-2	+1.2	20
17	Norwich	18	5	5	8	-3	-8.4	20
18	Bristol City	19	5	5	9	-5	-3.6	20
19	Blackburn	19	5	4	10	-9	-8.4	19
20	Huddersfield	19	3	8	8	-14	-7.6	17
21	Plymouth	20	2	7	11	-14	-11.0	13
22	Sheffield Weds	19	4	1	14	-28	-10.6	13
23	Birmingham	20	3	3	14	-20	-8.9	12
24	Rotherham	20	0	4	16	-43	-28.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.