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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Malec
Arka Gdynia
T T S U T
2–1
Full-time
GKS Katowice
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arka Gdynia GKS Katowice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 35%
30%
40%
Points per game
1,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 43%
45%
40%
Average goals
2,6
2,8
Scored
0,9
1,4
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,9
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,43 xG 1,02
43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Arka Gdynia 17. · GKS Katowice 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Jagiellonia 20 10 6 4 +13 -3.3 36
2 Gornik Zabrze 22 10 4 8 +4 -3.3 34
3 Rakow 22 10 4 8 +3 +6.0 34
4 Wisla Plock 22 8 9 5 +6 +2.2 33
5 Cracovia 22 8 9 5 +5 +3.7 33
6 Zaglebie 21 8 8 5 +6 -0.9 32
7 Lech Poznan 21 8 8 5 +4 +13.5 32
8 Lechia Gdansk 21 9 5 7 +3 +1.1 32
9 Korona Kielce 21 8 6 7 +4 -2.6 30
10 Pogon Szczecin 22 8 4 10 -3 +10.6 28
11 Radomiak Radom 20 7 6 7 +3 +1.5 27
12 GKS Katowice 20 8 3 9 -2 -6.9 27
13 Motor Lublin 22 6 9 7 -7 -6.4 27
14 Piast Gliwice 22 7 5 10 -3 -7.6 26
15 Legia 22 5 9 8 -2 +0.8 24
16 Widzew Lodz 22 7 3 12 -3 +4.6 24
17 Arka Gdynia 20 6 4 10 -18 -7.5 22
18 Nieciecza 22 5 6 11 -13 -5.6 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arka Gdynia GKS Katowice
1′
M. Wdowiak 0–1
B. Nowak
Oskar Kubiak 🟨
19′
1–1 M. Marcjanik
32′
2–1 N. Rusyn
S. Kerk
44′
Half-time 2–1
Vladislavs Gutkovskis 🟨
59′
Nazariy Rusyn 🟨
61′
61′
🟨 Borja Galán
T. Gaprindashvili 🔁
↦ D. Kocyla
62′
E. D. Espiau Hernandez 🔁
↦ V. Gutkovskis
62′
64′
🔁 E. Markovic
↦ M. Wdowiak
73′
🔁 K. Gruszkowski
↦ B. Galan
73′
🔁 I. Shkurin
↦ A. Zrelak
P. Szysz 🔁
↦ N. Rusyn
76′
81′
🟨 Konrad Gruszkowski
83′
🔁 A. Blad
↦ B. Nowak
83′
🔁 D. Rasak
↦ M. Kowalczyk
M. Rzuchowski 🔁
↦ L. Perea
90′
J. Oliveira 🔁
↦ S. Kerk
90′
Michał Marcjanik 🟨
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Arka Gdynia

3-4-2-1
77 D. Weglarz G
3 S. Szota D
29 M. Marcjanik D
94 D. Gojny D
11 D. Kocyla M
10 A. Nguiamba M
6 L. Perea M
7 O. Kubiak M
31 N. Rusyn F
37 S. Kerk F
19 V. Gutkovskis F
Bench (9)
1 J. Grobelny
33 D. Abramowicz
23 K. Hermoso
22 M. Rzuchowski
8 A. Sidibe
9 T. Gaprindashvili
27 J. Oliveira
21 P. Szysz
99 E. D. Espiau Hernandez

Coach: Dawid Szwarga

GKS Katowice

3-4-3
12 R. Straczek G
30 A. Czerwinski D
4 A. Jedrych D
6 L. Klemenz D
23 M. Wasielewski M
22 S. Milewski M
77 M. Kowalczyk M
8 B. Galan M
70 M. Wdowiak F
99 A. Zrelak F
27 B. Nowak F
Bench (11)
1 D. Kudla
2 M. Kuusk
10 M. Wedrychowski
11 A. Blad
15 E. Markovic
18 M. Swatowski
21 J. Kokosinski
24 K. Gruszkowski
26 D. Rasak
80 I. Shkurin
97 E. Jirka

Coach: Rafal Gorak

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Malec · 48 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.