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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Rzucidlo
Nieciecza
U T T S T
1–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nieciecza Pogon Szczecin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
4,0
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
3,0
5,5
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
1,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,64 xG 1,34
42% Possession 58%
16 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 9
2 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nieciecza 5. · Pogon Szczecin 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Wisla Plock 3 3 0 0 +5 +4.8 9
2 Cracovia 2 2 0 0 +5 +0.6 6
3 Gornik Zabrze 2 2 0 0 +2 +0.1 6
4 Radomiak Radom 2 1 1 0 +4 -0.1 4
5 Nieciecza 2 1 0 1 +2 +0.7 3
6 Legia 1 1 0 0 +2 +1.2 3
7 Widzew Lodz 2 1 0 1 +0 +0.9 3
8 Rakow 2 1 0 1 +0 +1.1 3
9 Pogon Szczecin 2 1 0 1 -1 +0.4 3
10 Lech Poznan 2 1 0 1 -2 +1.9 3
11 Motor Lublin 2 1 0 1 -2 +0.6 3
12 Jagiellonia 2 1 0 1 -3 -2.4 3
13 Zaglebie 3 0 2 1 -1 +0.1 2
14 GKS Katowice 2 0 1 1 -1 -3.0 1
15 Arka Gdynia 2 0 1 1 -1 -0.9 1
16 Korona Kielce 3 0 1 2 -4 -3.4 1
17 Lechia Gdansk 2 0 0 2 -2 -2.0 0
18 Piast Gliwice 2 0 0 2 -3 -0.7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nieciecza Pogon Szczecin
-5′
🟨 Leonardo Koutris
1′
🟨 Kamil Grosicki
1–0 A. Kasperkiewicz
M. Ambrosiewicz
18′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Leo Borges
↦ L. Koutris
46′
🔁 M. Ndiaye
↦ A. Przyborek
46′
🔁 M. Juwara
↦ P. Paryzek
59′
ℹ️ Marian Huja
VAR: Goal cancelled
I. Strzalek 🔁
↦ J. Jimenez
64′
R. Kurzawa 🔁
↦ A. Trubeha
65′
D. Hilbrycht 🔁
↦ M. Wolski
68′
68′
🔁 J. Lis
↦ L. Wahlqvist
68′
K. Grosicki 1–1
F. Ulvestad
77′
🔁 D. Keramitsis
↦ D. Loncar
L. Masoero 🔁
↦ R. Boboc
82′
D. Deisadze 🔁
↦ M. Fassbender
82′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Nieciecza

3-4-3
99 M. Mleczko G
29 G. Isik D
2 B. Kopacz D
3 A. Kasperkiewicz D
27 R. Boboc M
13 K. Kubica M
28 M. Ambrosiewicz M
6 M. Wolski M
53 A. Trubeha F
7 M. Fassbender F
9 J. Jimenez F
Bench (8)
1 A. Chovan
5 L. Masoero
8 R. Kurzawa
17 D. Biniek
21 D. Hilbrycht
35 D. Deisadze
55 Thiago Dombroski
86 I. Strzalek

Coach: Marcin Brosz

Pogon Szczecin

4-1-4-1
31 K. Kaminski G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
22 D. Loncar D
2 M. Huja D
32 L. Koutris D
8 F. Ulvestad M
18 P. Mukairu M
10 A. Przyborek M
14 J. Pozo M
11 K. Grosicki M
20 P. Paryzek F
Bench (11)
77 V. Cojocaru
91 K. Bochniarz
13 D. Keramitsis
17 J. Lis
4 Leo Borges
6 J. Bieganski
19 M. Ndiaye
35 M. Wojciechowski
7 M. Juwara
9 E. Koulouris
99 K. Kostorz

Coach: Thomas Thomasberg

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.