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Serie A

Referee: G Collu

Monza

U S U U T

1–0

Full-time

Genoa

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

29%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,39 xG 1,41

51% Possession 49%

6 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 12. · Genoa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	12	2	1	+30	+21.8	38
2	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+14	+13.7	36
3	Milan	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.8	29
4	Roma	14	7	3	4	+11	+7.7	24
5	Napoli	15	7	3	5	+8	+12.1	24
6	Atalanta	15	7	2	6	+6	+4.5	23
7	Fiorentina	14	7	2	5	+6	-1.7	23
8	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+5	+3.4	22
9	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	+2.6	21
10	Torino	15	5	5	5	-3	-0.8	20
11	Frosinone	15	5	4	6	-4	-6.7	19
12	Monza	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.4	18
13	Lecce	14	3	7	4	-3	-7.8	16
14	Genoa	14	4	3	7	-4	-1.2	15
15	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-5	-7.5	15
16	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-13	-1.8	12
17	Verona	15	2	5	8	-9	-9.9	11
18	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.8	11
19	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-13	-5.5	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	5	8	-18	-15.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+13.5	19
3	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+4	-1.7	17
4	Roma	7	5	1	1	+12	+6.1	16
5	Bologna	7	5	1	1	+6	+2.9	16
6	Milan	7	5	0	2	+7	+3.2	15
7	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+4	+4.8	14
8	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.6	13
9	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	+2.9	13
10	Torino	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.8	12
11	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-0.5	12
12	Genoa	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.6	11
13	Monza	7	2	4	1	+4	+2.5	10
14	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-2	-0.6	8
15	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-5	+1.3	8
16	Napoli	7	2	1	4	-2	+4.4	7
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Salernitana	7	1	3	3	-8	-4.2	6
19	Udinese	7	0	5	2	-5	+4.3	5
20	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+14	+8.3	19
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+6	+4.6	16
4	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.4	14
5	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.6	10
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Roma	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.6	8
8	Monza	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.9	8
9	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
10	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-3	-6.9	7
11	Lazio	8	2	1	5	-4	-2.2	7
12	Udinese	8	1	4	3	-8	-6.1	7
13	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.2	7
14	Bologna	7	0	6	1	-1	+0.5	6
15	Verona	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.9	5
16	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	-7.3	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.8	4
18	Frosinone	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.0	2
19	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.8	2
20	Salernitana	7	0	2	5	-10	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.