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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Arouca

T T T U S

2–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,24 xG 2,47

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

6 Offside 8

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 18. · Rio Ave 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	1	2	+13	+11.4	31
2	Porto	13	10	1	2	+12	+8.6	31
3	Benfica	13	9	3	1	+14	+16.8	30
4	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	+10.5	29
5	Guimaraes	13	8	1	4	+7	+3.2	25
6	Moreirense	12	6	3	3	+4	-0.5	21
7	Farense	13	5	2	6	+4	-7.5	17
8	Famalicao	13	4	5	4	-2	-4.1	17
9	Estrela	13	4	3	6	-3	-3.0	15
10	Boavista	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.0	15
11	Portimonense	13	4	3	6	-13	-6.5	15
12	Casa Pia	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.0	13
13	Gil Vicente	12	3	2	7	-1	-6.1	11
14	Estoril	12	3	1	8	-3	-6.8	10
15	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-7	+2.1	10
16	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-8	-2.5	10
17	Chaves	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.0	10
18	Arouca	12	2	3	7	-4	-0.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+11	+8.6	21
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+8	+5.3	15
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+8	+10.0	14
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+10	+10.5	13
5	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	+9.5	13
6	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+8	-2.3	11
7	Farense	7	3	1	3	+4	-0.3	10
8	Famalicao	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.4	10
9	Estrela	7	3	0	4	-1	-0.2	9
10	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.1	8
11	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.8	8
12	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.9	8
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.9	8
14	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+4	+0.5	7
15	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.4	7
16	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
17	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5
18	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-4	+0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+6	+0.0	16
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+6	+6.8	16
4	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.4	13
5	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
6	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-2.2	10
7	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-1.9	8
8	Farense	6	2	1	3	+0	-7.2	7
9	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	-1	-2.8	7
10	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.0	7
11	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.6	7
12	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.8	6
13	Arouca	6	1	2	3	+0	-1.6	5
14	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.3	5
15	Estoril	7	1	0	6	-7	-7.3	3
16	Chaves	6	1	0	5	-14	-5.3	3
17	Rio Ave	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.6	2
18	Gil Vicente	6	0	0	6	-9	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.