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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Watford

T S U U S

0–2

Full-time

Millwall

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 42%

43%

41%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

41%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

41%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 4. · Millwall 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	23	13	8	2	+22	47
2	Sheffield United	23	13	5	5	+18	44
3	Blackburn	23	13	0	10	+1	39
4	Watford	23	10	7	6	+8	37
5	Norwich	23	10	5	8	+5	35
6	QPR	23	10	4	9	+0	34
7	Preston	23	9	7	7	+0	34
8	Birmingham	23	8	8	7	+4	32
9	Millwall	22	9	5	8	+1	32
10	Swansea	23	8	8	7	-2	32
11	Reading	23	10	2	11	-7	32
12	Sunderland	22	8	6	8	+5	30
13	Middlesbrough	22	8	6	8	+3	30
14	Coventry	21	8	6	7	+2	30
15	West Brom	23	7	8	8	+3	29
16	Luton	21	7	8	6	+0	29
17	Stoke	23	8	5	10	-4	29
18	Bristol City	23	7	6	10	-1	27
19	Rotherham	23	6	8	9	-6	26
20	Cardiff	23	7	5	11	-8	26
21	Hull	23	7	5	11	-14	26
22	Blackpool	23	6	6	11	-9	24
23	Wigan	23	6	6	11	-11	24
24	Huddersfield	22	5	4	13	-10	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	12	8	4	0	+15	28
2	Blackburn	11	8	0	3	+7	24
3	Millwall	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Reading	11	7	1	3	+5	22
5	Sheffield United	11	6	3	2	+12	21
6	Watford	11	6	2	3	+7	20
7	Norwich	12	5	3	4	+4	18
8	Birmingham	12	4	5	3	+4	17
9	Coventry	10	5	2	3	+4	17
10	QPR	11	5	2	4	+2	17
11	Middlesbrough	11	4	5	2	+2	17
12	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+1	17
13	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+3	16
14	Rotherham	11	4	3	4	+3	15
15	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	+2	15
16	Cardiff	12	4	3	5	-1	15
17	Huddersfield	12	4	2	6	-2	14
18	Sunderland	11	3	4	4	+2	13
19	Preston	12	3	4	5	-5	13
20	Hull	12	4	1	7	-9	13
21	Luton	10	2	6	2	+2	12
22	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-3	12
23	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	-4	11
24	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	12	7	2	3	+6	23
2	Preston	11	6	3	2	+5	21
3	Burnley	11	5	4	2	+7	19
4	Sunderland	11	5	2	4	+3	17
5	Watford	12	4	5	3	+1	17
6	Norwich	11	5	2	4	+1	17
7	Stoke	12	5	2	5	-1	17
8	QPR	12	5	2	5	-2	17
9	Luton	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Wigan	11	4	3	4	+0	15
11	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Swansea	12	3	6	3	-3	15
13	Blackburn	12	5	0	7	-6	15
14	Middlesbrough	11	4	1	6	+1	13
15	West Brom	11	3	4	4	+0	13
16	Coventry	11	3	4	4	-2	13
17	Hull	11	3	4	4	-5	13
18	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-5	13
19	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	12
20	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	11
21	Rotherham	12	2	5	5	-9	11
22	Reading	12	3	1	8	-12	10
23	Millwall	11	2	3	6	-8	9
24	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.