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Serie B
Referee: M Irrati
Ternana
T S U T T
1–0
Full-time
Ascoli
U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ternana Ascoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,5
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-0,2
This season — Serie B · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 35%
37%
32%
Points per game
1,4
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
53%
42%
Both score Ø 50%
42%
58%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,1
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 9
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 10
4 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 15
5 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ternana 9. · Ascoli 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Frosinone 20 13 3 4 +18 42
2 Reggina 20 11 3 6 +13 36
3 Bari 20 8 9 3 +15 33
4 Genoa 19 9 6 4 +7 33
5 Pisa 20 7 8 5 +9 29
6 Sudtirol 20 7 8 5 -2 29
7 Cagliari 20 7 7 6 +2 28
8 Parma 20 7 6 7 +1 27
9 Ternana 19 7 5 7 -4 26
10 Ascoli 19 6 7 6 +1 25
11 Modena 20 7 4 9 -1 25
12 Palermo 20 6 7 7 -3 25
13 Brescia 20 6 7 7 -7 25
14 Spal 20 5 8 7 -1 23
15 Benevento 19 5 7 7 -3 22
16 Como 20 5 7 8 -7 22
17 Cittadella 20 5 7 8 -10 22
18 Venezia 19 5 5 9 -5 20
19 Perugia 20 5 5 10 -8 20
20 Cosenza 19 4 5 10 -15 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ternana Ascoli
Frederik Sørensen 🟨
20′
1–0 A. Palumbo
A. Favilli
27′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 S. Giovane
↦ M. Eramo
54′
🟨 Samuel Giovane
60′
🟨 Lorenco Šimić
Valerio Mantovani 🟨
62′
65′
🔁 C. Lungoyi
↦ F. Caligara
Andrea Favilli 🟨
70′
Francesco Di Tacchio 🟨
73′
76′
🔁 A. Re
↦ L. Šimić
80′
🟨 Alessio Re
81′
🔁 Pedro Mendes
↦ C. Gondo
M. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ D. Agazzi
82′
S. Pettinari 🔁
↦ A. Partipilo
82′
Niccolò Corrado 🟨
86′
F. Paghera 🔁
↦ A. Palumbo
89′
91′
🟨 Claud Adjapong
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ternana

3-5-2
1 A. Iannarilli G
23 S. Diakité D
4 F. Sørensen D
13 V. Mantovani D
24 L. Ghiringhelli M
34 D. Agazzi M
5 A. Palumbo M
14 F. Di Tacchio M
91 N. Corrado M
21 A. Partipilo F
17 A. Favilli F
Bench (11)
2 M. Coulibaly
32 S. Pettinari
20 F. Paghera
26 L. Bogdan
7 G. Capanni
10 C. Falletti
87 B. Martella
12 T. Krapikas
6 F. Mazzarani
33 T. Vitali
8 M. Proietti

Coach: A. Andreazzoli

Ascoli

3-5-2
1 N. Leali G
4 L. Šimić D
33 Eric Botteghin D
5 D. Quaranta D
17 C. Adjapong M
18 M. Collocolo M
27 M. Eramo M
8 F. Caligara M
54 N. Falasco M
15 C. Gondo F
9 F. Dionisi F
Bench (12)
32 S. Giovane
7 C. Lungoyi
97 A. Re
90 Pedro Mendes
44 A. Tavčar
46 N. Baumann
55 G. Bellusci
23 M. Falzerano
26 S. Bidaoui
20 F. Donati
13 E. Guarna
70 L. Lo Scalzo

Coach: C. Bucchi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,19
U
3,29
B
3,27
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,01
U2,5 ✓
1,79
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Irrati · 54 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.