Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hansa Rostock
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
St Pauli
|
12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +17 | 26 |
| 2 |
Regensburg
|
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |
Schalke 04
|
12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 4 |
Nurnberg
|
12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |
Darmstadt
|
12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +13 | 20 |
| 6 |
Hamburg
|
12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 |
Paderborn
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 18 |
| 8 |
Heidenheim
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 9 |
Karlsruhe
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |
Werder Bremen
|
12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +0 | 15 |
| 12 |
Dresden
|
12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |
Hannover
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 |
Sandhausen
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 |
Hansa Rostock
|
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 |
Holstein Kiel
|
12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Ingolstadt | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 5 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
St Pauli
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
Sandhausen
Holstein Kiel
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
Schalke 04
Nurnberg
Hansa Rostock
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.