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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Bournemouth

T U T T T

1–4

Full-time

Newcastle

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 28%

23%

32%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 18. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	31	28	2	1	+49	86
2	Man City	31	20	3	8	+44	63
3	Leicester	31	16	7	8	+30	55
4	Chelsea	31	16	6	9	+14	54
5	Man United	32	14	10	8	+20	52
6	Wolves	32	13	13	6	+11	52
7	Tottenham	31	12	9	10	+9	45
8	Burnley	32	13	6	13	-9	45
9	Sheffield United	31	11	11	9	-1	44
10	Arsenal	31	10	13	8	+2	43
11	Crystal Palace	32	11	9	12	-9	42
12	Everton	31	11	8	12	-8	41
13	Southampton	32	12	4	16	-14	40
14	Newcastle	31	10	9	12	-13	39
15	Brighton	32	7	12	13	-10	33
16	Watford	32	6	10	16	-20	28
17	West Ham	31	7	6	18	-19	27
18	Bournemouth	31	7	6	18	-21	27
19	Aston Villa	32	7	6	19	-24	27
20	Norwich	31	5	6	20	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Man City	15	11	2	2	+29	35
3	Man United	16	9	5	2	+20	32
4	Leicester	16	9	4	3	+15	31
5	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+14	30
6	Chelsea	16	8	3	5	+8	27
7	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
8	Everton	15	7	5	3	+4	26
9	Burnley	16	8	2	6	+2	26
10	Wolves	16	6	7	3	+5	25
11	Newcastle	16	6	7	3	+3	25
12	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
13	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-2	22
14	Brighton	16	5	6	5	+0	21
15	Watford	16	4	6	6	-3	18
16	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
17	Bournemouth	15	4	5	6	-6	17
18	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-5	15
19	Norwich	16	4	3	9	-11	15
20	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-17	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+17	38
2	Man City	16	9	1	6	+15	28
3	Chelsea	15	8	3	4	+6	27
4	Wolves	16	7	6	3	+6	27
5	Southampton	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Leicester	15	7	3	5	+15	24
7	Man United	16	5	5	6	+0	20
8	Sheffield United	16	4	8	4	-5	20
9	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-7	20
10	Burnley	16	5	4	7	-11	19
11	Arsenal	16	3	8	5	-4	17
12	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
13	Everton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
14	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
15	Brighton	16	2	6	8	-10	12
16	West Ham	16	3	3	10	-14	12
17	Bournemouth	16	3	1	12	-15	10
18	Watford	16	2	4	10	-17	10
19	Aston Villa	16	2	3	11	-16	9
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.