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Premier League
Referee: M Dean
Liverpool
S U U T U
0–1
Full-time
Burnley
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,2
1,2
Scored
1,7
0,5
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,2
This season — Premier League · 18/17 matches
Win Ø 37%
50%
24%
Points per game
1,9
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
56%
29%
Both score Ø 43%
61%
24%
Average goals
3,2
1,8
Scored
2,1
0,5
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%
27 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 4
11 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
12 Corners 0
1 Offside 6
11 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Burnley 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man United 19 12 4 3 +11 40
2 Man City 18 11 5 2 +18 38
3 Leicester 19 12 2 5 +14 38
4 Liverpool 18 9 7 2 +16 34
5 Tottenham 18 9 6 3 +16 33
6 Everton 17 10 2 5 +7 32
7 West Ham 19 9 5 5 +5 32
8 Chelsea 19 8 5 6 +10 29
9 Southampton 18 8 5 5 +5 29
10 Arsenal 19 8 3 8 +4 27
11 Aston Villa 16 8 2 6 +11 26
12 Leeds 18 7 2 9 -4 23
13 Crystal Palace 19 6 5 8 -11 23
14 Wolves 19 6 4 9 -8 22
15 Newcastle 18 5 4 9 -12 19
16 Brighton 19 3 8 8 -7 17
17 Burnley 17 4 4 9 -13 16
18 Fulham 18 2 6 10 -12 12
19 West Brom 19 2 5 12 -28 11
20 Sheffield United 19 1 2 16 -22 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Liverpool Burnley
39′
🟨 Ashley Barnes
Fabinho 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
50′
🔁 E. Pieters
↦ C. Taylor
Roberto Firmino 🔁
↦ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
57′
Mohamed Salah 🔁
↦ D. Origi
57′
65′
🔁 J. Guðmunds­son
↦ R. Brady
83′
A. Barnes 0–1
T. Minamino 🔁
↦ X. Shaqiri
84′
Joël Matip 🟨
87′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
32 J. Matip D
26 A. Robertson D
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 G. Wijnaldum M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
23 X. Shaqiri M
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain F
3 Fabinho D
10 S. Mané F
27 D. Origi F
Bench (9)
9 Roberto Firmino
11 Mohamed Salah
18 T. Minamino
17 C. Jones
47 N. Phillips
7 J. Milner
21 K. Tsimikas
62 C. Kelleher
76 N. Williams

Coach: J. Klopp

Burnley

4-4-2
1 N. Pope G
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
3 C. Taylor D
18 A. Westwood M
12 R. Brady M
8 J. Brownhill M
10 A. Barnes F
9 C. Wood F
11 D. McNeil M
Bench (9)
23 E. Pieters
7 J. Guðmunds­son
15 B. Peacock-Farrell
27 M. Vydra
19 J. Rodriguez
16 D. Stephens
28 K. Long
26 P. Bardsley
4 J. Cork

Coach: S. Dyche

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,20
U
7,05
B ✓
14,89
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,52
U2,5 ✓
2,53
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Dean · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.