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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Southampton

U T S S U

0–1

Full-time

Man City

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 48%

54%

42%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

46%

25%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 3. · Man City 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+17	31
2	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+13	25
3	Southampton	13	7	3	3	+7	24
4	Leicester	13	8	0	5	+7	24
5	Everton	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Man United	12	7	2	3	+3	23
7	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+12	22
8	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	Man City	12	5	5	2	+6	20
10	Wolves	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+8	19
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	3	6	-6	18
13	Leeds	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Newcastle	12	5	2	5	-5	17
15	Arsenal	13	4	2	7	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	2	5	6	-6	11
17	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-12	10
18	Fulham	13	2	3	8	-10	9
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-16	7
20	Sheffield United	13	0	1	12	-17	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Southampton	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Leicester	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	-4	9
11	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	+1	7
14	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Man United	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Brighton	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	6	6	0	0	+10	18
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+5	11
8	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+4	10
9	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
10	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Man City	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
13	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
14	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
17	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-8	6
18	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
19	West Brom	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.