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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Tondela

T S T T U

5–2

Full-time

Chaves

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 24%

24%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

55%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–2

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 27

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 15. · Chaves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	34	28	3	3	+72	87
2	Porto	34	27	4	3	+54	85
3	Sp Lisbon	34	23	5	6	+39	74
4	Sp Braga	34	21	4	9	+19	67
5	Moreirense	33	16	4	13	-3	52
6	Guimaraes	33	14	7	12	+10	49
7	Rio Ave	34	12	9	13	-2	45
8	Boavista	34	13	5	16	-6	44
9	Belenenses	34	10	13	11	-9	43
10	Santa Clara	34	11	9	14	-2	42
11	Portimonense	34	11	6	17	-15	39
12	Maritimo	34	12	3	19	-18	39
13	Vitoria Setubal	34	8	12	14	-11	36
14	Aves	34	10	6	18	-14	36
15	Tondela	33	8	8	17	-17	32
16	Chaves	33	8	8	17	-20	32
17	Nacional	34	7	7	20	-40	28
18	Feirense	34	3	11	20	-37	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	15	0	2	+32	45
2	Benfica	17	14	2	1	+46	44
3	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+25	44
4	Sp Braga	17	13	1	3	+17	40
5	Guimaraes	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	Boavista	17	10	1	6	+7	31
7	Portimonense	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	3	5	+1	27
9	Maritimo	17	8	2	7	+0	26
10	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-1	23
11	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	-2	21
12	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-5	21
13	Santa Clara	17	5	5	7	-2	20
14	Aves	17	5	3	9	-3	18
15	Chaves	17	4	6	7	-3	18
16	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	6	7	-5	18
17	Nacional	17	5	3	9	-10	18
18	Feirense	17	2	6	9	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+26	43
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+22	40
3	Sp Lisbon	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Sp Braga	17	8	3	6	+2	27
5	Moreirense	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Rio Ave	17	7	3	7	+0	24
7	Santa Clara	17	6	4	7	+0	22
8	Belenenses	17	4	8	5	-8	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Aves	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
12	Chaves	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Boavista	17	3	4	10	-13	13
14	Maritimo	17	4	1	12	-18	13
15	Tondela	17	2	5	10	-12	11
16	Portimonense	17	3	2	12	-20	11
17	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-30	10
18	Feirense	17	1	5	11	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.