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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela

Vitoria Setubal

U U T U U

0–0

Full-time

Belenenses

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

25%

35%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

26 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 13. · Belenenses 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	21	16	3	2	+30	51
2	Benfica	21	16	2	3	+37	50
3	Sp Braga	21	15	4	2	+22	49
4	Sp Lisbon	21	13	3	5	+16	42
5	Moreirense	21	11	2	8	-2	35
6	Guimaraes	21	9	5	7	+4	32
7	Belenenses	20	7	8	5	+1	29
8	Rio Ave	21	7	7	7	+0	28
9	Portimonense	21	8	3	10	-5	27
10	Santa Clara	21	7	3	11	-3	24
11	Tondela	21	6	5	10	-5	23
12	Boavista	21	6	4	11	-10	22
13	Vitoria Setubal	20	5	6	9	-4	21
14	Aves	21	6	3	12	-11	21
15	Maritimo	21	6	2	13	-13	20
16	Nacional	21	5	5	11	-25	20
17	Chaves	21	5	3	13	-14	18
18	Feirense	21	2	8	11	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Porto	10	9	0	1	+20	27
4	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+26	25
5	Moreirense	10	6	2	2	+4	20
6	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Guimaraes	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	11	4	5	2	+2	17
9	Boavista	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Belenenses	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Aves	11	3	3	5	-1	12
13	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	+0	11
14	Chaves	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Nacional	11	3	2	6	-9	11
16	Santa Clara	11	3	1	7	-5	10
17	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Feirense	10	1	5	4	-4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
3	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+5	18
4	Moreirense	11	5	0	6	-6	15
5	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	+2	14
6	Santa Clara	10	4	2	4	+2	14
7	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	+0	14
8	Belenenses	10	3	5	2	-1	14
9	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	4	5	-4	10
11	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-7	10
12	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-3	9
13	Portimonense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Aves	10	3	0	7	-10	9
15	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-16	9
16	Chaves	11	2	1	8	-11	7
17	Boavista	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Feirense	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.