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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Vitoria Setubal

U U U U U

3–0

Full-time

Belenenses

U U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 18%

10%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

45%

35%

Both score Ø 53%

65%

40%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 17. · Belenenses 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	20	16	4	0	+39	52
2	Benfica	21	15	5	1	+38	50
3	Sp Lisbon	21	15	5	1	+30	50
4	Sp Braga	21	14	1	6	+18	43
5	Rio Ave	21	10	3	8	+2	33
6	Chaves	21	8	6	7	-3	30
7	Guimaraes	21	9	2	10	-7	29
8	Maritimo	21	8	5	8	-7	29
9	Boavista	20	8	3	9	-3	27
10	Portimonense	21	6	6	9	-1	24
11	Tondela	21	6	4	11	-10	22
12	Belenenses	20	5	6	9	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	21	5	6	10	-13	21
14	Feirense	21	6	2	13	-9	20
15	Moreirense	21	4	7	10	-14	19
16	Estoril	20	5	3	12	-18	18
17	Vitoria Setubal	20	2	9	9	-16	15
18	Aves	20	3	5	12	-17	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+27	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+20	29
3	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+26	28
4	Sp Braga	11	9	0	2	+18	27
5	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+3	21
6	Rio Ave	10	6	1	3	+6	19
7	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	-1	19
8	Boavista	10	6	0	4	-1	18
9	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+7	17
10	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	+4	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
12	Chaves	10	3	5	2	+3	14
13	Estoril	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Feirense	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	5	3	-3	11
16	Tondela	11	3	2	6	-5	11
17	Moreirense	10	1	6	3	-5	9
18	Aves	10	1	2	7	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	6	4	1	+12	22
2	Porto	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Sp Lisbon	10	6	3	1	+10	21
4	Sp Braga	10	5	1	4	+0	16
5	Chaves	11	5	1	5	-6	16
6	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-5	11
8	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-6	10
9	Moreirense	11	3	1	7	-9	10
10	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-2	9
11	Aves	10	2	3	5	-6	9
12	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-10	8
13	Feirense	10	2	1	7	-5	7
14	Portimonense	11	1	4	6	-8	7
15	Belenenses	10	1	2	7	-13	5
16	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-15	5
17	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-16	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	10	0	4	6	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.