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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Moreirense

U U U S T

2–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 26%

21%

31%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

43%

31%

Both score Ø 44%

57%

31%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Moreirense 14. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	14	0	1	+33	42
2	Porto	14	11	2	1	+23	35
3	Famalicao	14	7	3	4	+1	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Rio Ave	15	6	4	5	+2	22
6	Guimaraes	14	5	6	3	+7	21
7	Tondela	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Setubal	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	7	3	-2	19
10	Sp Braga	14	5	3	6	-1	18
11	Boavista	15	4	6	5	-2	18
12	Gil Vicente	14	4	5	5	-2	17
13	Maritimo	15	3	7	5	-8	16
14	Moreirense	14	3	6	5	-2	15
15	Santa Clara	14	3	6	5	-4	15
16	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-9	15
17	Portimonense	15	2	7	6	-9	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	2	10	-14	8
19	Aves	15	2	0	13	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+21	24
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+10	14
4	Gil Vicente	8	3	5	0	+5	14
5	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Setubal	8	3	5	0	+3	14
7	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	5	0	+3	14
8	Famalicao	6	4	1	1	+5	13
9	Sp Lisbon	6	4	0	2	+4	12
10	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+4	11
11	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
12	Maritimo	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Boavista	7	2	3	2	-1	9
15	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	1	5	-3	7
16	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Aves	6	2	0	4	-1	6
18	Portimonense	7	1	3	3	-3	6
19	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Tondela	8	4	3	1	+4	15
3	Porto	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Famalicao	8	3	2	3	-4	11
6	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	9
7	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-2	8
8	Belenenses	7	2	2	3	-6	8
9	Guimaraes	7	1	4	2	-3	7
10	Sp Braga	8	2	1	5	-3	7
11	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-6	7
12	Santa Clara	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-7	6
14	Setubal	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Moreirense	8	0	4	4	-6	4
17	Gil Vicente	6	1	0	5	-7	3
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-11	1
19	Aves	9	0	0	9	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.