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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jorge de Sousa
Rio Ave
T U T T S
3–1
Full-time
Tondela
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 27%
36%
18%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
55%
36%
Both score Ø 60%
64%
55%
Average goals
2,5
2,1
Scored
1,1
0,7
Conceded
1,4
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
12 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 2
0 Offside 6
16 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rio Ave 8. · Tondela 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 12 9 2 1 +20 29
2 Sp Lisbon 11 7 3 1 +11 24
3 Sp Braga 11 7 2 2 +10 23
4 Porto 11 6 4 1 +14 22
5 Guimaraes 11 6 2 3 +6 20
6 Maritimo 12 5 2 5 -2 17
7 Chaves 11 3 6 2 +1 15
8 Rio Ave 11 4 2 5 -3 14
9 Estoril 11 4 2 5 -3 14
10 Vitoria Setubal 11 3 4 4 -1 13
11 Boavista 11 3 4 4 -2 13
12 Belenenses 11 3 4 4 -4 13
13 Arouca 11 3 2 6 -8 11
14 Feirense 11 3 2 6 -12 11
15 Pacos Ferreira 11 2 4 5 -4 10
16 Tondela 11 2 3 6 -7 9
17 Nacional 11 2 2 7 -7 8
18 Moreirense 11 2 2 7 -9 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rio Ave Tondela
Marcelo 🟨
10′
11′
🟨 Pica
1–0 Yazalde
Rafa
28′
45′
🟨 Fernando Ferreira
Half-time 1–0
55′
🔁 Murilo
↦ J. Murillo
2–0 Gil Dias
61′
63′
🔁 A. També
↦ Fernando Ferreira
A. Wakaso 🔁
↦ Tarantini
64′
64′
🔁 Zé Turbo
↦ E. Moreno
Ronan 🔁
↦ L. Kizito
72′
Filipe Augusto 🟨
73′
80′
🟨 Wagner
82′
🟨 José Correia
Alhassan Wakaso 🟨
83′
Lionn 🔁
↦ Gil Dias
86′
92′
Bruno Monteiro 2–1
Miguel Cardoso
3–1 Filipe Augusto
F. Krovinović
93′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-2-3-1
1 Cássio
26 Pedrinho D
46 Marcelo D
25 Roderick D
55 Rafa D
8 Tarantini M
5 Filipe Augusto M
10 F. Krovinović M
88 Yazalde F
17 L. Kizito F
31 Gil Dias M
Bench (7)
30 A. Wakaso
19 Ronan
12 Lionn
4 Nélson Monte
20 João Novais
71 Rui Vieira
75 T. Chérif

Coach: Luís Castro

Tondela

4-2-3-1
1 Cláudio Ramos G
4 Kaká D
3 Pica D
22 David Bruno D
24 Mamadu Candé D
27 Bruno Monteiro M
14 Fernando Ferreira M
16 E. Moreno F
28 Wagner F
15 J. Murillo F
11 Miguel Cardoso M
Bench (7)
77 Murilo
93 A. També
9 Zé Turbo
12 Ricardo Janota
13 Jaílson
20 Pité
44 Rafael Amorim

Coach: Petit

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Jorge de Sousa · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.