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La Liga
Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva
Villarreal
T T U S S
1–1
Full-time
Barcelona
U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 57%
50%
63%
Points per game
1,8
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
44%
63%
Both score Ø 54%
44%
63%
Average goals
2,3
3,6
Scored
1,6
2,6
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%
6 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Barcelona 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 16 12 4 0 +31 40
2 Sevilla 17 11 3 3 +15 36
3 Barcelona 16 10 4 2 +25 34
4 Ath Madrid 17 9 4 4 +17 31
5 Villarreal 16 8 5 3 +14 29
6 Sociedad 17 9 2 6 +3 29
7 Ath Bilbao 17 8 3 6 +3 27
8 Las Palmas 17 6 6 5 +3 24
9 Celta 17 7 3 7 -4 24
10 Eibar 17 6 5 6 +0 23
11 Espanol 17 5 8 4 -2 23
12 Alaves 17 5 7 5 -2 22
13 Malaga 17 5 6 6 -3 21
14 Betis 17 6 3 8 -9 21
15 La Coruna 17 4 5 8 -5 17
16 Leganes 17 4 4 9 -16 16
17 Valencia 15 3 3 9 -8 12
18 Sp Gijon 17 3 3 11 -17 12
19 Granada 17 1 6 10 -24 9
20 Osasuna 16 1 4 11 -21 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Barcelona
Half-time 1–0
1–0 N. Sansone
Alexandre Pato
49′
68′
🔁 Denis Suárez
↦ André Gomes
Jaume Costa 🟨
70′
71′
🔁 A. Turan
↦ L. Digne
Samu Castillejo 🔁
↦ Alexandre Pato
76′
Nicola Sansone 🟨
78′
78′
🟨 Sergi Roberto
83′
🟨 Gerard Piqué
Rodri Hernández 🔁
↦ R. Soriano
83′
Álvaro González 🔁
↦ M. Musacchio
87′
Jaume Costa 🟨
90′
Jaume Costa 🟥
90′
90′
L. Messi 1–1
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
1 Sergio Asenjo G
5 M. Musacchio D
2 Mario Gaspar D
11 Jaume Costa D
6 Víctor Ruíz D
21 Bruno M
20 R. Soriano M
8 J. dos Santos M
14 Trigueros M
10 Alexandre Pato F
18 N. Sansone F
Bench (7)
19 Samu Castillejo
16 Rodri Hernández
12 Álvaro González
4 A. N'Diaye
13 Andrés Fernández
22 A. Rukavina
24 R. Borré

Coach: Fran Escribá

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
14 J. Mascherano M
3 Piqué D
19 L. Digne D
8 Iniesta M
5 Busquets M
20 Sergi Roberto D
21 André Gomes M
10 L. Messi F
9 L. Suárez F
11 Neymar F
Bench (7)
6 Denis Suárez
7 A. Turan
12 Rafinha
17 Paco Alcácer
18 Jordi Alba
23 S. Umtiti
25 Jordi Masip

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.