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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Pacos Ferreira

U U S T T

3–1

Full-time

Nacional

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3 Shots 0

3 Shots on target 0

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 11. · Nacional 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
4	Sp Braga	6	4	0	2	+8	12
5	Estoril	7	4	0	3	-2	12
6	Rio Ave	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Arouca	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Boavista	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-4	8
12	Nacional	6	2	1	3	+0	7
13	Belenenses	6	1	4	1	-4	7
14	U. Madeira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Guimaraes	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Tondela	6	1	0	5	-4	3
17	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Academica	6	0	0	6	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Nacional	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Academica	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
3	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
10	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
11	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-6	2
12	U. Madeira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-5	1
14	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-3	0
16	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Academica	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Moreirense	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.