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Pro League
1–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Royal Excel Mouscron
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
This season — Pro League · 9/6 matches
Win Ø 28%
22%
33%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
56%
83%
Both score Ø 70%
56%
83%
Average goals
2,9
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Oud-Heverlee Leuven 10. · Royal Excel Mouscron 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Oostende 8 6 2 0 +11 20
2 Club Brugge 8 5 1 2 +13 16
3 Anderlecht 6 5 1 0 +8 16
4 St Truiden 8 4 1 3 +5 13
5 Gent 6 3 3 0 +6 12
6 Genk 5 3 0 2 +2 9
7 Charleroi 6 2 3 1 +2 9
8 Waregem 6 3 0 3 +0 9
9 Mechelen 7 2 2 3 -4 8
10 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 9 2 2 5 -4 8
11 Royal Excel Mouscron 6 2 1 3 -3 7
12 Kortrijk 6 1 3 2 -1 6
13 Westerlo 9 1 3 5 -9 6
14 Beveren 6 2 0 4 -9 6
15 Lokeren 8 1 1 6 -7 4
16 Standard 6 1 1 4 -10 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Royal Excel Mouscron
Half-time 0–0
A. Cerigioni 🔁
↦ Y. Croizet
61′
K. Ojo 🔁
↦ R. Regales
61′
73′
J. Michel 0–1
74′
🔁 Frederic Maciel
↦ M. Oussalah
79′
🔁 A. Badri
↦ F. Marković
1–1 J. Bostock
83′
T. Azevedo 🔁
↦ L. Trossard
84′
88′
🔁 L. Vaccaro
↦ F. Marquet
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

26 R. Riou
29 P. Monteyne
4 R. Reynaud
5 P. Ngawa
16 K. Rougkalas
8 F. Le Postollec
15 J. Bostock
10 Y. Croizet
7 J. Remacle
9 R. Regales
19 L. Trossard
Bench (7)
11 A. Cerigioni
27 K. Ojo
14 T. Azevedo
1 Y. Lenaerts
3 D. Vandenbroeck
12 K. Houdret
22 S. Asamoah

Royal Excel Mouscron

86 Vagner
25 M. Oussalah
24 N. Gulan
3 N. Dussenne
6 T. Mézague
13 N. Aksentijević
5 D. Hubert
10 J. Michel
8 F. Marquet
44 M. Šćepović
18 F. Marković
Bench (7)
27 Frederic Maciel
9 A. Badri
26 L. Vaccaro
12 T. Rausin
17 M. Jakoliš
30 M. Pavlovski
55 C. Manea

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.