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Ligue 1

Referee: Frank Schneider

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

T T T U T

2–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gazelec FC Ajaccio Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 7%

13%

Points per game

0,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

13%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

25%

75%

Average goals

1,6

2,6

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gazelec FC Ajaccio 20. · Toulouse 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	St Etienne	8	5	1	2	+2	16
3	Rennes	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Lyon	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Reims	9	4	3	2	+4	15
6	Angers	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Caen	8	5	0	3	+0	15
8	Nice	8	4	2	2	+9	14
9	Monaco	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Lorient	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Lille	9	2	4	3	+0	10
12	Bastia	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	-2	10
14	Guingamp	8	3	1	4	-4	10
15	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Marseille	8	2	2	4	+4	8
17	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-8	4
19	Troyes	8	0	4	4	-10	4
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	0	2	6	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Bastia	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Caen	4	3	0	1	+0	9
4	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Marseille	5	2	1	2	+7	7
7	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+0	7
13	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
14	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
15	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
16	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
17	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	-4	3
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Angers	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	St Etienne	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Nice	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Reims	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Lorient	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
13	Bordeaux	4	0	3	1	-5	3
14	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Marseille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Bastia	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Toulouse	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.