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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Man City

S S S T T

6–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

71%

Points per game

2,1

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 36%

29%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,9

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

23 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	5	1	1	+7	16
2	Man City	7	5	0	2	+7	15
3	Crystal Palace	8	5	0	3	+4	15
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Arsenal	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Everton	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+1	12
9	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-2	11
10	Southampton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Norwich	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Watford	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Chelsea	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	West Brom	8	2	2	4	-5	8
16	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Stoke	7	1	3	3	-3	6
18	Aston Villa	7	1	1	5	-4	4
19	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-6	3
20	Sunderland	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
6	Man City	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Southampton	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Leicester	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Watford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Southampton	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Bournemouth	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.