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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Sp Lisbon

S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

100%

25%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

100%

25%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

77% Possession 23%

22 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Nacional 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	5	3	0	2	+9	9
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+7	9
5	Estoril	5	3	0	2	-2	9
6	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Arouca	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+1	6
11	Nacional	4	2	0	2	+1	6
12	U. Madeira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	-2	6
14	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	-4	6
15	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Moreirense	5	0	1	4	-7	1
18	Academica	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Academica	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
3	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Porto	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-5	3
9	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
10	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-5	1
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
13	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Moreirense	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.