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Eredivisie
Referee: Allard Lindhout
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Excelsior
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
2,7
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,0
This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 60%
86%
33%
Points per game
2,6
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
71%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
48%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,9
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
29 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 0
8 Blocked shots 7
0 Goalkeeper saves 7
11 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Excelsior 11. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 21 18 1 2 +35 55
2 Ajax 21 15 3 3 +41 48
3 AZ Alkmaar 21 13 4 4 +17 43
4 Zwolle 22 11 6 5 +2 39
5 Feyenoord 21 10 6 5 +20 36
6 Vitesse 19 8 6 5 +10 30
7 Heerenveen 21 8 6 7 -2 30
8 VVV Venlo 21 7 8 6 -2 29
9 Den Haag 20 8 4 8 -3 28
10 Utrecht 19 7 7 5 -3 28
11 Excelsior 21 7 4 10 -6 25
12 Heracles 21 6 6 9 -12 24
13 Groningen 21 5 7 9 -2 22
14 Willem II 21 4 5 12 -16 17
15 Twente 21 4 4 13 -12 16
16 NAC Breda 21 4 4 13 -19 16
17 Roda 21 4 4 13 -22 16
18 Sparta Rotterdam 21 3 5 13 -26 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Nov -17 Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven 1–2 14. Jan -17 PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior 2–0 24. Sep -16 Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven 1–3 27. Jan -16 Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven 1–3 17. Oct -15 PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior 1–1

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior
1–0 H. Lozano ⚽
L. de Jong
17′
42′
🟨 Jeffrey Fortes
Half-time 1–0
61′
🔁 L. Garcia
↦ D. Haspolat
Joshua Brenet 🟨
69′
69′
🟨 Jurgen Matheij
72′
🔁 K. Vermeulen
↦ A. Messaoud
P. Rosario 🔁
↦ Mauro Júnior
74′
Steven Bergwijn 🟨
76′
82′
🟨 Kevin Vermeulen
83′
🔁 A. Hadouir
↦ W. Faes
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
1 J. Zoet G
5 D. Schwaab D
4 S. Arias D
2 N. Isimat-Mirin D
20 J. Brenet D
8 J. Hendrix M
23 B. Ramselaar M
47 Mauro Júnior M
9 L. de Jong F
17 S. Bergwijn F
11 H. Lozano F
Bench (11)
18 P. Rosario
7 G. Pereiro
16 D. Rigo
31 Y. van Osch
32 K. Paal
3 D. Luckassen
14 S. Lammers
13 E. Room
29 Albert Gudmundsson
50 A. Obispo
52 C. Gakpo

Coach: P. Cocu

Excelsior

4-3-3
12 T. Zwarthoed
15 J. Mattheij D
2 K. Karami D
4 W. Faes D
10 L. Bruins F
22 Jeffry Fortes D
14 A. Messaoud M
6 H. Faik M
21 D. Haspolat M
9 M. van Duinen F
11 S. Elbers F
Bench (9)
20 L. Garcia
18 K. Vermeulen
7 A. Hadouir
3 S. O'Neill
33 M. Afaker
16 M. Havekotte
8 R. Koolwijk
25 Ö. Kristinsson
28 L. Burnet

Coach: M. van der Gaag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Allard Lindhout · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.