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Eredivisie

Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf

Heerenveen

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 57%

67%

47%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

25 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · Excelsior 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	12	2	1	+34	38
2	Feyenoord	15	11	2	2	+21	35
3	PSV Eindhoven	15	10	4	1	+22	34
4	Heracles	14	8	2	4	+7	26
5	Groningen	15	7	4	4	+0	25
6	Vitesse	15	7	3	5	+14	24
7	Nijmegen	15	7	3	5	+4	24
8	Zwolle	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	AZ Alkmaar	15	5	3	7	-4	18
10	Heerenveen	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Excelsior	15	4	5	6	-7	17
12	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-1	16
13	Den Haag	15	3	7	5	-5	16
14	Roda	15	3	6	6	-15	15
15	Willem II	15	3	5	7	-2	14
16	Twente	15	2	4	9	-20	10
17	Cambuur	15	0	7	8	-26	7
18	De Graafschap	15	1	2	12	-22	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+16	22
2	Groningen	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	Ajax	7	6	0	1	+21	18
4	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	+10	16
6	Heracles	7	5	1	1	+7	16
7	Vitesse	8	5	0	3	+10	15
8	Utrecht	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Heerenveen	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Zwolle	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Roda	9	2	5	2	-3	11
12	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Willem II	8	2	3	3	+2	9
14	Den Haag	7	1	5	1	+0	8
15	Excelsior	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Twente	7	2	1	4	-8	7
17	Cambuur	8	0	4	4	-14	4
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	3	1	+12	18
3	Feyenoord	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Zwolle	7	3	2	2	+5	11
5	Heracles	7	3	1	3	+0	10
6	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+4	9
7	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-4	9
8	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Den Haag	8	2	2	4	-5	8
10	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Groningen	8	1	3	4	-10	6
12	Willem II	7	1	2	4	-4	5
13	Heerenveen	8	1	2	5	-8	5
14	Utrecht	7	1	1	5	-6	4
15	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	-10	4
16	Roda	6	1	1	4	-12	4
17	Cambuur	7	0	3	4	-12	3
18	Twente	8	0	3	5	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.