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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Excelsior

T T T S U

3–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 14/12 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

64%

42%

Both score Ø 61%

64%

58%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

33% Possession 67%

8 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 12. · AZ Alkmaar 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+24	33
2	Ajax	14	10	3	1	+21	33
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	8	5	1	+16	29
4	Heerenveen	14	7	4	3	+12	25
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	6	1	+10	21
6	Twente	14	5	5	4	+3	20
7	Heracles	15	4	6	5	-5	18
8	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+1	17
9	Vitesse	14	4	5	5	+1	17
10	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	5	5	+0	17
11	Nijmegen	15	3	6	6	-13	15
12	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-8	14
13	Willem II	14	3	5	6	-8	14
14	Den Haag	14	4	2	8	-9	14
15	Groningen	13	3	4	6	-4	13
16	Zwolle	14	3	4	7	-16	13
17	Roda	14	1	8	5	-11	11
18	Go Ahead Eagles	15	3	2	10	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	+15	17
2	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+11	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	4	0	+8	13
4	Twente	7	3	3	1	+5	12
5	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	PSV Eindhoven	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Heerenveen	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Heracles	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Utrecht	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	3	1	4	-2	10
11	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-3	10
12	Excelsior	7	3	0	4	-1	9
13	Vitesse	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Zwolle	8	2	2	4	-10	8
15	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Groningen	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Roda	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	2	0	+13	17
2	Ajax	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+9	16
4	Heerenveen	8	4	2	2	+8	14
5	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+2	9
6	Groningen	7	2	2	3	+4	8
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Twente	7	2	2	3	-2	8
9	Willem II	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Roda	8	1	5	2	-6	8
11	Den Haag	8	2	1	5	-7	7
12	Heracles	8	1	4	3	-7	7
13	Utrecht	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Excelsior	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Nijmegen	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Go Ahead Eagles	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.