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Eredivisie

Referee: Kevin Blom

AZ Alkmaar

U U S U U

5–1

Full-time

Heracles

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 11/13 matches

Win Ø 30%

36%

23%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 66%

55%

77%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

64% Possession 36%

25 Shots 9

13 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 8

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 6. · Heracles 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+24	32
2	Ajax	13	9	3	1	+20	30
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	8	5	1	+16	29
4	Heerenveen	12	6	4	2	+11	22
5	Twente	14	5	5	4	+3	20
6	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	6	1	+6	18
7	Vitesse	14	4	5	5	+1	17
8	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	5	5	+0	17
9	Utrecht	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Heracles	13	3	6	4	-3	15
11	Nijmegen	14	3	6	5	-11	15
12	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-8	14
13	Willem II	14	3	5	6	-8	14
14	Den Haag	14	4	2	8	-9	14
15	Groningen	13	3	4	6	-4	13
16	Zwolle	14	3	4	7	-16	13
17	Roda	14	1	8	5	-11	11
18	Go Ahead Eagles	14	3	2	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	+15	17
2	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+11	16
3	Twente	7	3	3	1	+5	12
4	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	3	1	+3	12
5	PSV Eindhoven	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	4	0	+4	10
8	Utrecht	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-3	10
11	Excelsior	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Heracles	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Vitesse	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Zwolle	8	2	2	4	-10	8
15	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Groningen	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Roda	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	2	0	+13	17
2	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+9	15
3	Ajax	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Heerenveen	7	3	2	2	+6	11
5	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+2	9
6	Groningen	7	2	2	3	+4	8
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Twente	7	2	2	3	-2	8
9	Willem II	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Roda	8	1	5	2	-6	8
11	Heracles	7	1	4	2	-3	7
12	Den Haag	8	2	1	5	-7	7
13	Utrecht	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Excelsior	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Nijmegen	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Go Ahead Eagles	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.