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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Excelsior

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

3,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

48%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

68%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

44%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

30 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

15 Corners 2

6 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	20	5	1	+43	65
2	Ajax	25	19	4	2	+44	61
3	Feyenoord	25	12	4	9	+10	40
4	AZ Alkmaar	25	12	4	9	+7	40
5	Nijmegen	26	11	6	9	+0	39
6	Zwolle	24	11	5	8	+7	38
7	Vitesse	25	10	7	8	+20	37
8	Heracles	24	10	5	9	-5	35
9	Groningen	25	9	7	9	-8	34
10	Den Haag	26	8	9	9	-2	33
11	Heerenveen	26	9	6	11	-14	33
12	Utrecht	23	9	5	9	+4	32
13	Twente	26	9	4	13	-14	31
14	Roda	25	6	10	9	-11	28
15	Willem II	25	5	10	10	-4	25
16	Excelsior	25	5	7	13	-19	22
17	Cambuur	25	3	7	15	-33	16
18	De Graafschap	26	3	5	18	-25	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	13	11	1	1	+30	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+19	32
3	Nijmegen	14	9	2	3	+7	29
4	Groningen	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Vitesse	13	7	2	4	+16	23
6	Feyenoord	12	7	2	3	+11	23
7	AZ Alkmaar	13	7	2	4	+7	23
8	Zwolle	12	7	2	3	+4	23
9	Heracles	12	7	2	3	+2	23
10	Twente	12	7	1	4	+4	22
11	Heerenveen	13	5	4	4	-3	19
12	Utrecht	10	5	3	2	+4	18
13	Den Haag	13	3	7	3	-1	16
14	Willem II	12	3	6	3	+3	15
15	Roda	13	3	6	4	-4	15
16	Excelsior	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Cambuur	13	2	4	7	-16	10
18	De Graafschap	13	2	3	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+24	33
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	2	5	+0	17
4	Feyenoord	13	5	2	6	-1	17
5	Den Haag	13	5	2	6	-1	17
6	Zwolle	12	4	3	5	+3	15
7	Vitesse	12	3	5	4	+4	14
8	Utrecht	13	4	2	7	+0	14
9	Heerenveen	13	4	2	7	-11	14
10	Roda	12	3	4	5	-7	13
11	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-7	12
12	Willem II	13	2	4	7	-7	10
13	Nijmegen	12	2	4	6	-7	10
14	Excelsior	12	2	4	6	-10	10
15	Groningen	12	2	4	6	-13	10
16	Twente	14	2	3	9	-18	9
17	Cambuur	12	1	3	8	-17	6
18	De Graafschap	13	1	2	10	-16	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.