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Premier League
Referee: Craig Pawson
West Ham
S T U T U
1–5
Full-time
Arsenal
U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 43%
23%
62%
Points per game
0,9
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
46%
62%
Both score Ø 66%
62%
69%
Average goals
2,9
3,2
Scored
1,1
2,2
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
10 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 10
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 17. · Arsenal 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 14 11 1 2 +21 34
2 Liverpool 13 9 3 1 +18 30
3 Man City 14 9 3 2 +15 30
4 Arsenal 13 8 4 1 +15 28
5 Tottenham 14 7 6 1 +14 27
6 West Brom 14 5 5 4 +3 20
7 Man United 13 5 5 3 +3 20
8 Everton 13 5 4 4 +1 19
9 Stoke 14 5 4 5 -3 19
10 Watford 14 5 3 6 -6 18
11 Southampton 14 4 5 5 -2 17
12 Bournemouth 13 4 3 6 -4 15
13 Crystal Palace 14 4 2 8 -2 14
14 Burnley 14 4 2 8 -11 14
15 Leicester 14 3 4 7 -7 13
16 Middlesbrough 13 2 6 5 -3 12
17 West Ham 13 3 3 7 -10 12
18 Sunderland 14 3 2 9 -10 11
19 Hull 13 3 2 8 -17 11
20 Swansea 14 2 3 9 -15 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Arsenal
Arbeloa 🔁
↦ J. Collins
7′
24′
M. Özil 0–1
A. Sánchez
30′
🟨 Francis Coquelin
Half-time 0–1
Ashley Fletcher 🟨
59′
A. Ayew 🔁
↦ E. Fernandes
63′
Winston Reid 🟨
65′
66′
🔁 A. Ramsey
↦ T. Walcott
67′
🟨 Laurent Koscielny
72′
A. Sánchez 0–2
S. Mustafi
A. Carroll 🔁
↦ M. Noble
73′
80′
A. Sánchez 0–3
82′
🟨 Shkodran Mustafi
1–3 A. Carroll
83′
84′
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 1–4
M. Özil
86′
A. Sánchez 1–5
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
87′
🔁 Mohamed Elneny
↦ F. Coquelin
88′
🔁 A. Iwobi
↦ M. Özil
Álvaro Arbeloa 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

West Ham

3-4-2-1
1 D. Randolph G
19 J. Collins D
21 A. Ogbonna D
2 W. Reid D
26 A. Masuaku M
27 D. Payet F
16 M. Noble M
14 Pedro Obiang M
10 M. Lanzini F
31 E. Fernandes M
24 A. Fletcher F
Bench (7)
5 Arbeloa
20 A. Ayew
9 A. Carroll
4 H. Nordtveit
7 S. Feghouli
11 S. Zaza
13 Adrián

Coach: S. Bilić

Arsenal

4-2-3-1
33 P. Čech G
18 Nacho Monreal D
6 L. Koscielny D
20 S. Mustafi D
5 Gabriel Paulista D
11 M. Özil M
34 F. Coquelin M
29 G. Xhaka M
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain M
14 T. Walcott M
7 A. Sánchez F
Bench (7)
8 A. Ramsey
35 Mohamed Elneny
17 A. Iwobi
3 K. Gibbs
9 Lucas Pérez
13 D. Ospina
16 R. Holding

Coach: A. Wenger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Craig Pawson · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.