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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

Dortmund

U U S S T

4–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · M'gladbach 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	9	3	1	+20	30
2	RB Leipzig	12	9	3	0	+17	30
3	Hertha	12	7	3	2	+8	24
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	7	3	2	+8	24
5	FC Koln	12	6	4	2	+10	22
6	Hoffenheim	12	5	7	0	+7	22
7	Dortmund	12	6	3	3	+13	21
8	Schalke 04	12	5	2	5	+4	17
9	Mainz	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Leverkusen	12	5	1	6	-1	16
11	Freiburg	12	5	0	7	-8	15
12	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Wolfsburg	12	2	4	6	-5	10
15	Darmstadt	12	2	2	8	-13	8
16	Werder Bremen	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	1	3	8	-13	6
18	Hamburg	12	0	4	8	-19	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	6	6	0	0	+10	18
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+14	17
3	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+10	14
4	FC Koln	6	4	2	0	+9	14
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+4	14
6	RB Leipzig	5	4	1	0	+6	13
7	Schalke 04	6	4	0	2	+7	12
8	M'gladbach	7	3	3	1	+5	12
9	Hoffenheim	6	3	3	0	+3	12
10	Freiburg	6	4	0	2	-1	12
11	Mainz	6	3	1	2	+2	10
12	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+1	10
13	Darmstadt	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Werder Bremen	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Wolfsburg	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+11	17
2	Bayern Munich	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Hoffenheim	6	2	4	0	+4	10
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Wolfsburg	6	2	2	2	+2	8
6	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Dortmund	6	2	1	3	+3	7
9	Mainz	7	2	1	4	-4	7
10	Leverkusen	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	1	1	4	-6	4
14	Freiburg	6	1	0	5	-7	3
15	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-8	2
16	Werder Bremen	6	0	2	4	-13	2
17	M'gladbach	5	0	1	4	-11	1
18	Darmstadt	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.