Ligue 1
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Toulouse
Guingamp
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris SG
|
26 | 23 | 2 | 1 | +64 | 71 |
| 2 |
Lille
|
27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | +21 | 54 |
| 3 |
Lyon
|
28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | +14 | 50 |
| 4 |
Marseille
|
27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | +8 | 44 |
| 5 |
St Etienne
|
27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | +3 | 43 |
| 6 |
Reims
|
28 | 10 | 13 | 5 | +3 | 43 |
| 7 |
Montpellier
|
27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | +7 | 41 |
| 8 |
Nice
|
27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 |
Strasbourg
|
28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | +10 | 38 |
| 10 |
Rennes
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +1 | 37 |
| 11 |
Nimes
|
27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 36 |
| 12 |
Angers
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | +0 | 34 |
| 13 |
Bordeaux
|
28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 14 |
Nantes
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 31 |
| 15 |
Toulouse
|
27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 28 |
| 16 |
Amiens
|
28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | -19 | 28 |
| 17 |
Monaco
|
28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -15 | 27 |
| 18 |
Dijon
|
27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 21 |
| 19 |
Caen
|
27 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -14 | 20 |
| 20 |
Guingamp
|
27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -32 | 19 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Lyon
Toulouse
Toulouse
Caen
Bordeaux
Toulouse
Toulouse
Reims
Monaco
Toulouse
J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.