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Ligue 1
Referee: J Brisard
Toulouse
T U T U T
1–0
Full-time
Guingamp
T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Guingamp
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
2,7
1,2
Scored
0,8
0,3
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 19%
22%
15%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
52%
52%
Both score Ø 54%
63%
44%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
1,6
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

69% Possession 31%
19 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 0
8 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 2
4 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Toulouse 15. · Guingamp 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 26 23 2 1 +64 71
2 Lille 27 16 6 5 +21 54
3 Lyon 28 14 8 6 +14 50
4 Marseille 27 13 5 9 +8 44
5 St Etienne 27 12 7 8 +3 43
6 Reims 28 10 13 5 +3 43
7 Montpellier 27 10 11 6 +7 41
8 Nice 27 11 7 9 -7 40
9 Strasbourg 28 9 11 8 +10 38
10 Rennes 26 10 7 9 +1 37
11 Nimes 27 10 6 11 -2 36
12 Angers 27 8 10 9 +0 34
13 Bordeaux 28 8 9 11 -3 33
14 Nantes 27 8 7 12 -3 31
15 Toulouse 27 6 10 11 -16 28
16 Amiens 28 8 4 16 -19 28
17 Monaco 28 6 9 13 -15 27
18 Dijon 27 5 6 16 -20 21
19 Caen 27 3 11 13 -14 20
20 Guingamp 27 4 7 16 -32 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.