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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Birmingham

S T U S T

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 35/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

34%

31%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

54%

59%

Both score Ø 63%

57%

69%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 10. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	36	21	9	6	+27	72
2	Sheffield United	36	20	8	8	+27	68
3	Leeds	34	19	7	8	+17	64
4	Middlesbrough	35	15	13	7	+13	58
5	West Brom	34	16	9	9	+18	57
6	Derby	33	15	10	8	+11	55
7	Bristol City	35	15	9	11	+7	54
8	Nott'm Forest	36	13	14	9	+10	53
9	Preston	36	13	12	11	+6	51
10	Birmingham	35	12	14	9	+8	50
11	Hull	36	14	8	14	-1	50
12	Brentford	35	13	10	12	+13	49
13	Sheffield Weds	36	12	13	11	-7	49
14	Swansea	35	13	8	14	+2	47
15	Stoke	36	10	15	11	-5	45
16	Aston Villa	32	10	14	8	+6	44
17	Blackburn	36	11	11	14	-9	44
18	QPR	36	12	7	17	-13	43
19	Reading	36	8	12	16	-13	36
20	Wigan	36	9	9	18	-16	36
21	Millwall	36	8	10	18	-16	34
22	Rotherham	36	6	15	15	-21	33
23	Bolton	36	7	8	21	-32	29
24	Ipswich	36	3	13	20	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	18	12	3	3	+20	39
2	Norwich	18	12	2	4	+11	38
3	Brentford	18	11	3	4	+21	36
4	Leeds	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Nott'm Forest	18	10	4	4	+11	34
6	Derby	17	9	6	2	+10	33
7	Hull	18	9	4	5	+13	31
8	Wigan	18	8	6	4	+3	30
9	Sheffield Weds	18	7	8	3	+3	29
10	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
11	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+2	28
12	West Brom	17	7	6	4	+13	27
13	Preston	18	6	9	3	+9	27
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	6	4	+6	27
15	Blackburn	18	7	6	5	+5	27
16	QPR	18	8	3	7	+2	27
17	Birmingham	17	6	8	3	+9	26
18	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
19	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+3	26
20	Rotherham	18	6	8	4	-2	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	18	6	4	8	-1	22
23	Bolton	18	4	4	10	-14	16
24	Ipswich	18	2	9	7	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	9	7	2	+16	34
2	Middlesbrough	18	8	7	3	+7	31
3	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
4	Sheffield United	18	8	5	5	+7	29
5	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
6	Leeds	17	8	4	5	+2	28
7	Birmingham	18	6	6	6	-1	24
8	Preston	18	7	3	8	-3	24
9	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
10	Sheffield Weds	18	5	5	8	-10	20
11	Nott'm Forest	18	3	10	5	-1	19
12	Swansea	18	5	4	9	-4	19
13	Hull	18	5	4	9	-14	19
14	Aston Villa	16	4	6	6	-1	18
15	Stoke	18	2	11	5	-7	17
16	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-14	17
17	QPR	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Reading	18	2	8	8	-12	14
19	Brentford	17	2	7	8	-8	13
20	Bolton	18	3	4	11	-18	13
21	Millwall	18	2	4	12	-14	10
22	Rotherham	18	0	7	11	-19	7
23	Ipswich	18	1	4	13	-25	7
24	Wigan	18	1	3	14	-19	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.