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Ligue 1

Referee: Frank Schneider

Lyon

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Bastia

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,3

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

45%

27%

Average goals

3,0

1,6

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

23 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

8 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Lyon 8. · Bastia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+21	26
3	Paris SG	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Guingamp	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Rennes	11	6	2	3	+1	20
6	Toulouse	11	5	3	3	+6	18
7	St Etienne	11	4	5	2	+4	17
8	Lyon	11	5	1	5	+3	16
9	Bordeaux	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Angers	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Montpellier	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Dijon	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Metz	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Bastia	11	3	2	6	-2	11
16	Nantes	11	3	2	6	-7	11
17	Lille	11	3	1	7	-7	10
18	Caen	11	3	1	7	-12	10
19	Nancy	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Lorient	11	2	1	8	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Monaco	6	5	1	0	+16	16
3	Rennes	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Guingamp	5	4	1	0	+4	13
5	Toulouse	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	St Etienne	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	Marseille	6	3	3	0	+4	12
8	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	11
9	Dijon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
10	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+3	11
11	Lyon	5	3	0	2	+4	9
12	Lille	6	3	0	3	-2	9
13	Caen	5	3	0	2	-4	9
14	Angers	5	2	2	1	+2	8
15	Bordeaux	5	2	2	1	+1	8
16	Bastia	6	2	2	2	+0	8
17	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-4	7
18	Metz	5	2	0	3	-9	6
19	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Nancy	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Monaco	6	3	1	2	+5	10
3	Nice	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Bordeaux	6	2	2	2	+0	8
5	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	+1	7
6	Lyon	6	2	1	3	-1	7
7	Metz	6	2	1	3	-1	7
8	Nantes	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Angers	6	2	0	4	-3	6
11	St Etienne	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Nancy	6	1	2	3	-7	5
13	Rennes	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Bastia	5	1	0	4	-2	3
15	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-10	3
16	Marseille	6	0	2	4	-5	2
17	Dijon	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Lille	5	0	1	4	-5	1
19	Caen	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Lorient	5	0	0	5	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.