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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Bastia

U S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Lyon

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

32%

36%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

45%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

27% Possession 73%

7 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 15. · Lyon 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	19	3	0	+46	60
2	Monaco	23	10	9	4	+5	39
3	Angers	23	10	7	6	+6	37
4	Nice	22	10	6	6	+11	36
5	Rennes	22	8	10	4	+7	34
6	St Etienne	22	10	3	9	+0	33
7	Caen	22	10	3	9	-4	33
8	Marseille	23	7	10	6	+9	31
9	Lyon	22	8	6	8	+2	30
10	Bordeaux	22	7	9	6	-3	30
11	Nantes	22	7	8	7	-2	29
12	Lorient	22	6	9	7	-2	27
13	Lille	23	5	11	7	-1	26
14	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	22	6	8	8	-3	26
15	Bastia	22	7	4	11	-6	25
16	Guingamp	22	6	6	10	-9	24
17	Reims	22	5	8	9	-7	23
18	Montpellier	22	6	4	12	-6	22
19	Toulouse	22	4	8	10	-15	20
20	Troyes	22	1	8	13	-28	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+27	28
2	St Etienne	11	7	2	2	+8	23
3	Angers	12	5	6	1	+7	21
4	Bastia	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	Bordeaux	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Nice	11	6	1	4	+6	19
7	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+7	18
8	Monaco	11	4	5	2	+3	17
9	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+4	16
10	Guingamp	11	4	4	3	+2	16
11	Nantes	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	Caen	11	5	1	5	-6	16
13	Lille	11	4	3	4	+2	15
14	Montpellier	12	5	0	7	-2	15
15	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	10	3	5	2	+2	14
16	Reims	12	3	5	4	+0	14
17	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	14
18	Marseille	12	2	7	3	+6	13
19	Toulouse	10	2	5	3	+0	11
20	Troyes	12	0	6	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+2	22
3	Rennes	11	5	5	1	+8	20
4	Marseille	11	5	3	3	+3	18
5	Nice	11	4	5	2	+5	17
6	Caen	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Angers	11	5	1	5	-1	16
8	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Lyon	11	3	3	5	-5	12
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Lille	12	1	8	3	-3	11
12	Lorient	11	2	5	4	-6	11
13	St Etienne	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Reims	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Bordeaux	11	1	6	4	-8	9
16	Toulouse	12	2	3	7	-15	9
17	Guingamp	11	2	2	7	-11	8
18	Montpellier	10	1	4	5	-4	7
19	Troyes	10	1	2	7	-18	5
20	Bastia	11	0	4	7	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.