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Premier League
Referee: Kevin Friend
Man City
S T U U S
1–1
Full-time
Middlesbrough
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Middlesbrough
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
2,2
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,3
This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 45%
70%
20%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
70%
40%
Both score Ø 65%
70%
60%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
2,4
0,9
Conceded
0,9
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%
25 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 2
5 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 1. · Middlesbrough 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 10 7 2 1 +15 23
2 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 +13 23
3 Liverpool 10 7 2 1 +11 23
4 Chelsea 10 7 1 2 +12 22
5 Tottenham 10 5 5 0 +9 20
6 Everton 10 5 3 2 +7 18
7 Watford 10 4 3 3 +1 15
8 Man United 10 4 3 3 +1 15
9 Southampton 10 3 4 3 +1 13
10 Bournemouth 10 3 3 4 -2 12
11 Leicester 10 3 3 4 -4 12
12 Stoke 10 3 3 4 -5 12
13 Crystal Palace 10 3 2 5 -2 11
14 Burnley 10 3 2 5 -5 11
15 Middlesbrough 10 2 4 4 -2 10
16 West Brom 10 2 4 4 -4 10
17 West Ham 10 3 1 6 -9 10
18 Hull 10 2 1 7 -15 7
19 Swansea 10 1 2 7 -9 5
20 Sunderland 10 0 2 8 -13 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City Middlesbrough
20′
🟨 Adam Forshaw
1–0 S. Agüero
K. De Bruyne
43′
Half-time 1–0
52′
🟨 Adam Clayton
Nolito 🔁
↦ İ. Gündoğan
75′
78′
🔁 V. Fischer
↦ S. Downing
Aleix García 🔁
↦ Jesús Navas
86′
Sergio Agüero 🟨
88′
89′
🟨 Marten de Roon
K. Iheanacho 🔁
↦ S. Agüero
90′
91′
M. de Roon 1–1
G. Friend
93′
🔁 C. Stuani
↦ Adama Traoré
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
1 C. Bravo G
22 G. Clichy D
5 P. Zabaleta D
11 A. Kolarov D
24 J. Stones D
21 David Silva M
15 Jesús Navas M
25 Fernandinho M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
17 K. De Bruyne M
10 S. Agüero F
Bench (7)
9 Nolito
75 Aleix García
72 K. Iheanacho
4 V. Kompany
13 W. Caballero
19 L. Sané
50 Pablo Maffeo

Coach: Guardiola

Middlesbrough

4-5-1
26 Víctor Valdés G
17 Barragán D
3 G. Friend D
6 B. Gibson D
25 C. Chambers D
19 S. Downing M
8 A. Clayton M
34 A. Forshaw M
14 M. de Roon M
37 Adama Traoré M
10 Álvaro Negredo F
Bench (7)
11 V. Fischer
18 C. Stuani
2 Fábio
5 B. Espinosa
7 G. Leadbitter
12 B. Guzan
35 D. Nugent

Coach: Karanka

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Kevin Friend · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.