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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Lyon

S T S U U

2–0

Full-time

Bastia

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 7. · Bastia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+10	17
2	Rennes	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	St Etienne	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Reims	7	3	3	1	+4	12
5	Angers	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Caen	6	4	0	2	+0	12
7	Lyon	6	2	3	1	+4	9
8	Guingamp	7	3	0	4	-4	9
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Lorient	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Monaco	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Marseille	6	2	1	3	+5	7
13	Bordeaux	6	1	4	1	+1	7
14	Lille	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Bastia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Nantes	6	2	1	3	-4	7
17	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Montpellier	6	0	1	5	-6	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+8	7
2	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Reims	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Bastia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Nantes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Caen	3	2	0	1	-2	6
11	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Bordeaux	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Lyon	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Lyon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Caen	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Lorient	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Bordeaux	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Lille	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Bastia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.