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Serie A
Referee: Michael Fabbri
Inter
S U S S U
2–0
Full-time
Atalanta
T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,2
This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 54%
75%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
50%
58%
Both score Ø 67%
58%
75%
Average goals
2,7
2,9
Scored
1,9
1,6
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
8 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 1
0 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 2
2 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Inter 4. · Atalanta 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 13 11 2 0 +25 35
2 Juventus 13 10 1 2 +23 31
3 Roma 12 10 0 2 +15 30
4 Inter 12 9 3 0 +14 30
5 Lazio 12 9 1 2 +18 28
6 Sampdoria 12 8 2 2 +12 26
7 Milan 13 6 1 6 +1 19
8 Torino 13 4 6 3 -2 18
9 Fiorentina 13 5 2 6 +4 17
10 Chievo 13 4 5 4 -5 17
11 Atalanta 12 4 4 4 +3 16
12 Cagliari 13 5 0 8 -9 15
13 Bologna 12 4 2 6 -4 14
14 Udinese 12 4 0 8 -5 12
15 Crotone 13 3 3 7 -13 12
16 Sassuolo 13 3 2 8 -14 11
17 Spal 13 2 4 7 -10 10
18 Genoa 13 2 3 8 -8 9
19 Verona 12 1 3 8 -18 6
20 Benevento 13 0 0 13 -27 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Inter Atalanta
Half-time 0–0
48′
🟨 José Luis Palomino
1–0 M. Icardi
A. Candreva
51′
53′
🟨 Jasmin Kurtić
55′
🔁 A. Petagna
↦ J. Iličić
2–0 M. Icardi
D. D'Ambrosio
60′
67′
🔁 R. Orsolini
↦ A. Gómez
M. Brozović 🔁
↦ A. Candreva
73′
77′
🔁 N. Haas
↦ Rafael Tolói
João Mário 🔁
↦ Borja Valero
83′
E. Martins 🔁
↦ M. Icardi
90′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Inter

4-2-3-1
1 S. Handanovič G
25 João Miranda D
21 D. Santon D
33 D. D'Ambrosio D
37 M. Škriniar D
44 I. Perišić M
87 A. Candreva M
20 Borja Valero M
11 M. Vecino M
5 R. Gagliardini M
9 M. Icardi F
Bench (11)
77 M. Brozović
10 João Mário
23 E. Martins
7 João Cancelo
13 A. Ranocchia
17 Y. Karamoh
27 D. Padelli
29 Dalbert Henrique
46 T. Berni
55 Y. Nagatomo
99 A. Pinamonti

Coach: L. Spalletti

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 E. Berisha G
5 A. Masiello D
3 Rafael Tolói D
6 J. Palomino D
21 T. Castagne M
33 H. Hateboer M
10 A. Gómez F
72 J. Iličić F
15 M. de Roon M
27 J. Kurtič M
4 B. Cristante M
Bench (12)
29 A. Petagna
7 R. Orsolini
32 N. Haas
8 R. Gosens
9 A. Cornelius
20 L. Vido
23 F. Melegoni
28 G. Mancini
31 F. Rossi
88 João Schmidt
91 P. Gollini
95 A. Bastoni

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Michael Fabbri · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.