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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Tagliavento

Inter

S S U S S

3–2

Full-time

Milan

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 72%

86%

57%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

15 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 12

6 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 4. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	8	0	0	+21	24
2	Juventus	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	Lazio	8	6	1	1	+11	19
4	Inter	7	6	1	0	+11	19
5	Roma	7	5	0	2	+9	15
6	Sampdoria	7	4	2	1	+2	14
7	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+0	14
8	Torino	8	3	4	1	+1	13
9	Milan	7	4	0	3	+0	12
10	Chievo	8	3	3	2	+0	12
11	Fiorentina	8	3	1	4	+1	10
12	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	+0	9
13	Udinese	8	2	0	6	-2	6
14	Cagliari	8	2	0	6	-8	6
15	Crotone	8	1	3	4	-8	6
16	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Spal	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-11	5
19	Verona	7	0	3	4	-13	3
20	Benevento	7	0	0	7	-16	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Sampdoria	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Atalanta	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Udinese	4	2	0	2	+3	6
10	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Torino	3	1	2	0	+3	5
12	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	5
13	Crotone	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Chievo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Spal	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Sassuolo	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Verona	4	0	1	3	-10	1
20	Benevento	4	0	0	4	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Inter	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Roma	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Bologna	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Chievo	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Torino	5	2	2	1	-2	8
8	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Sampdoria	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Fiorentina	4	1	0	3	+0	3
12	Milan	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Verona	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Spal	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Udinese	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Benevento	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.