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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Villarreal

T S U U S

2–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,2

3,0

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 58%

43%

73%

Points per game

1,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

30%

77%

Both score Ø 54%

39%

68%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,6

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 25

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	24	16	6	2	+45	54
2	Real Madrid	22	16	4	2	+37	52
3	Sevilla	24	16	4	4	+19	52
4	Ath Madrid	24	13	6	5	+23	45
5	Sociedad	24	14	2	8	+5	44
6	Villarreal	23	10	9	4	+15	39
7	Eibar	24	11	5	8	+8	38
8	Ath Bilbao	24	11	5	8	+2	38
9	Espanol	24	9	8	7	+2	35
10	Celta	23	10	4	9	+0	34
11	Alaves	24	8	9	7	-5	33
12	Las Palmas	24	7	7	10	-4	28
13	Valencia	24	7	5	12	-9	26
14	Malaga	24	6	8	10	-9	26
15	Betis	23	6	6	11	-14	24
16	Leganes	24	5	6	13	-19	21
17	La Coruna	23	4	7	12	-13	19
18	Sp Gijon	24	4	5	15	-22	17
19	Granada	24	3	7	14	-30	16
20	Osasuna	24	1	7	16	-31	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Ath Bilbao	13	9	3	1	+11	30
3	Sevilla	11	9	1	1	+12	28
4	Ath Madrid	12	8	2	2	+15	26
5	Eibar	13	8	2	3	+9	26
6	Barcelona	11	7	3	1	+20	24
7	Villarreal	12	7	3	2	+12	24
8	Celta	11	8	0	3	+6	24
9	Las Palmas	13	6	5	2	+9	23
10	Sociedad	12	7	2	3	+4	23
11	Espanol	13	5	5	3	+6	20
12	Malaga	11	6	2	3	+4	20
13	Betis	13	4	6	3	-1	18
14	Alaves	12	3	6	3	-6	15
15	La Coruna	10	4	2	4	+4	14
16	Valencia	11	4	2	5	-5	14
17	Granada	11	3	4	4	+0	13
18	Sp Gijon	12	3	2	7	-12	11
19	Leganes	12	2	4	6	-6	10
20	Osasuna	12	0	4	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	9	3	1	+25	30
2	Sevilla	13	7	3	3	+7	24
3	Sociedad	12	7	0	5	+1	21
4	Real Madrid	10	6	2	2	+16	20
5	Ath Madrid	12	5	4	3	+8	19
6	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Villarreal	11	3	6	2	+3	15
8	Espanol	11	4	3	4	-4	15
9	Eibar	11	3	3	5	-1	12
10	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-4	12
11	Leganes	12	3	2	7	-13	11
12	Celta	12	2	4	6	-6	10
13	Ath Bilbao	11	2	2	7	-9	8
14	Sp Gijon	12	1	3	8	-10	6
15	Malaga	13	0	6	7	-13	6
16	Betis	10	2	0	8	-13	6
17	Osasuna	12	1	3	8	-17	6
18	Las Palmas	11	1	2	8	-13	5
19	La Coruna	13	0	5	8	-17	5
20	Granada	13	0	3	10	-30	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.