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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Real Madrid

S U U U S

2–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

2,8

2,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

63%

Points per game

2,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,8

2,9

Scored

2,8

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

24 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 5. · Ath Bilbao 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	9	6	2	1	+5	20
2	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+17	19
3	Villarreal	9	5	4	0	+11	19
4	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+17	18
5	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+14	18
6	Ath Bilbao	8	5	0	3	+3	15
7	Sociedad	9	4	1	4	+2	13
8	Celta	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Las Palmas	9	3	3	3	+2	12
10	Malaga	9	3	3	3	+2	12
11	Eibar	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Betis	9	3	2	4	-8	11
13	Alaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-8	10
15	Valencia	9	3	0	6	-5	9
16	Espanol	9	1	5	3	-5	8
17	La Coruna	9	2	2	5	-8	8
18	Sp Gijon	9	2	2	5	-11	8
19	Osasuna	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Granada	9	0	3	6	-15	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	5	5	0	0	+6	15
2	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+12	10
4	Sociedad	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Malaga	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Ath Bilbao	4	3	0	1	+3	9
7	Celta	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Las Palmas	4	2	2	0	+5	8
9	Real Madrid	4	2	2	0	+4	8
10	Barcelona	4	2	1	1	+7	7
11	Eibar	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Alaves	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	La Coruna	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Sp Gijon	4	2	0	2	-4	6
15	Betis	4	1	2	1	-4	5
16	Espanol	5	0	3	2	-4	3
17	Valencia	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Granada	5	0	2	3	-3	2
19	Osasuna	5	0	2	3	-4	2
20	Leganes	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+10	10
3	Leganes	5	3	0	2	-2	9
4	Ath Madrid	5	2	2	1	+5	8
5	Villarreal	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Betis	5	2	0	3	-4	6
9	Eibar	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Espanol	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Sevilla	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Las Palmas	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Osasuna	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Alaves	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Celta	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Sociedad	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Malaga	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Sp Gijon	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	La Coruna	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.