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La Liga
Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
Alaves
S U T S T
1–1
Full-time
Malaga
T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Malaga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,3
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 29%
29%
29%
Points per game
1,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
2,1
2,3
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 6
5 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Alaves 12. · Malaga 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ath Madrid 8 5 3 0 +18 18
2 Real Madrid 8 5 3 0 +14 18
3 Sevilla 8 5 2 1 +4 17
4 Barcelona 8 5 1 2 +16 16
5 Villarreal 7 3 4 0 +5 13
6 Las Palmas 8 3 3 2 +3 12
7 Ath Bilbao 7 4 0 3 +2 12
8 Eibar 7 3 2 2 +2 11
9 Sociedad 7 3 1 3 +0 10
10 Celta 7 3 1 3 -2 10
11 Leganes 8 3 1 4 -4 10
12 Alaves 7 2 3 2 +1 9
13 Malaga 7 2 2 3 -2 8
14 La Coruna 8 2 2 4 -5 8
15 Betis 8 2 2 4 -9 8
16 Espanol 8 1 4 3 -5 7
17 Sp Gijon 7 2 1 4 -10 7
18 Valencia 7 2 0 5 -5 6
19 Osasuna 7 0 3 4 -8 3
20 Granada 8 0 2 6 -15 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.