La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Villarreal
Getafe
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | +60 | 76 |
| 2 |
Ath Madrid
|
32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | +38 | 73 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
32 | 22 | 6 | 4 | +64 | 72 |
| 4 |
Villarreal
|
31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |
Celta
|
32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 52 |
| 6 |
Ath Bilbao
|
31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | +9 | 48 |
| 7 |
Sevilla
|
32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | +6 | 48 |
| 8 |
Malaga
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 |
Sociedad
|
32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | -2 | 41 |
| 10 |
Eibar
|
32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -5 | 38 |
| 11 |
Valencia
|
32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 37 |
| 12 |
La Coruna
|
31 | 7 | 16 | 8 | -4 | 37 |
| 13 |
Betis
|
32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -16 | 37 |
| 14 |
Las Palmas
|
31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 36 |
| 15 |
Espanol
|
32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -27 | 36 |
| 16 |
Vallecano
|
31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -20 | 31 |
| 17 |
Granada
|
32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -24 | 30 |
| 18 |
Sp Gijon
|
32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -21 | 28 |
| 19 |
Getafe
|
31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -26 | 28 |
| 20 |
Levante
|
32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -27 | 25 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Denis Suárez
M
Léo Baptistão
F
E. Buendía
M
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Eibar
Villarreal
Villarreal
Barcelona
Sevilla
Villarreal
Villarreal
Las Palmas
Celta
Villarreal
Alberto Undiano · 79 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.