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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Pacos Ferreira

T U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Porto

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 50%

32%

68%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 48%

46%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

33% Possession 67%

6 Shots 22

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 14

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 9. · Porto 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	24	1	4	+58	73
2	Sp Lisbon	29	22	5	2	+44	71
3	Porto	28	19	4	5	+29	61
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+20	50
5	Arouca	29	11	12	6	+5	45
6	Rio Ave	28	12	6	10	+0	42
7	Estoril	29	11	6	12	-2	39
8	Nacional	29	10	7	12	-5	37
9	Pacos Ferreira	28	9	9	10	-1	36
10	Belenenses	29	9	9	11	-20	36
11	Guimaraes	28	8	11	9	-5	35
12	Maritimo	29	9	5	15	-16	32
13	Vitoria Setubal	29	6	11	12	-13	29
14	Moreirense	28	7	7	14	-14	28
15	Boavista	29	6	8	15	-14	26
16	U. Madeira	29	6	8	15	-20	26
17	Academica	29	5	8	16	-23	23
18	Tondela	29	5	5	19	-23	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	0	2	+34	36
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Porto	14	10	2	2	+16	32
4	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+24	30
5	Nacional	15	8	3	4	+6	27
6	Arouca	14	7	4	3	+7	25
7	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
8	Estoril	14	7	3	4	+6	24
9	U. Madeira	14	5	6	3	+2	21
10	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	4	5	+3	19
12	Belenenses	14	5	4	5	-6	19
13	Academica	15	5	4	6	-7	19
14	Guimaraes	15	4	6	5	+1	18
15	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	8	5	-9	14
16	Boavista	15	2	5	8	-9	11
17	Moreirense	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+24	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+24	35
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Arouca	15	4	8	3	-2	20
5	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-4	20
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-3	17
8	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	5	5	-4	17
9	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	-6	17
10	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-14	17
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-8	15
14	Maritimo	15	3	3	9	-18	12
15	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	Nacional	14	2	4	8	-11	10
17	U. Madeira	15	1	2	12	-22	5
18	Academica	14	0	4	10	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.