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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Liverpool

S S S T U

4–1

Full-time

Stoke

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 30/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

40%

41%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 9. · Stoke 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	33	21	9	3	+26	72
2	Tottenham	32	17	11	4	+32	62
3	Arsenal	32	17	8	7	+22	59
4	Man City	32	17	6	9	+25	57
5	Man United	31	15	8	8	+12	53
6	West Ham	32	13	13	6	+12	52
7	Southampton	33	14	8	11	+10	50
8	Stoke	32	13	8	11	-3	47
9	Liverpool	30	12	9	9	+5	45
10	Chelsea	32	11	11	10	+7	44
11	Bournemouth	33	11	8	14	-15	41
12	Swansea	33	10	10	13	-8	40
13	West Brom	32	10	10	12	-8	40
14	Everton	31	9	12	10	+9	39
15	Watford	32	10	8	14	-6	38
16	Crystal Palace	32	10	7	15	-7	37
17	Norwich	33	8	7	18	-22	31
18	Sunderland	32	6	9	17	-21	27
19	Newcastle	32	6	7	19	-29	25
20	Aston Villa	33	3	7	23	-41	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	5	1	+11	35
2	Man City	17	11	1	5	+22	34
3	Tottenham	16	9	5	2	+18	32
4	Man United	15	9	4	2	+13	31
5	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+13	30
6	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
7	West Ham	16	7	7	2	+8	28
8	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
9	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+1	24
10	Chelsea	16	5	7	4	+5	22
11	West Brom	16	6	4	6	-2	22
12	Liverpool	14	5	6	3	+2	21
13	Watford	17	5	5	7	+0	20
14	Norwich	16	5	5	6	-2	20
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-7	19
16	Newcastle	15	4	6	5	+0	18
17	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-1	17
18	Crystal Palace	17	5	2	10	-5	17
19	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
20	Aston Villa	17	2	4	11	-19	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	16	8	6	2	+14	30
3	Arsenal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
4	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
5	Liverpool	16	7	3	6	+3	24
6	Everton	15	5	8	2	+8	23
7	Man City	15	6	5	4	+3	23
8	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-4	23
9	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+2	22
10	Man United	16	6	4	6	-1	22
11	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-8	22
12	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-2	20
13	Southampton	16	5	5	6	-2	20
14	Watford	15	5	3	7	-6	18
15	West Brom	16	4	6	6	-6	18
16	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-6	14
17	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
18	Sunderland	16	2	4	10	-20	10
19	Newcastle	17	2	1	14	-29	7
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.