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Bundesliga
Referee: Sascha Stegemann
2–1
Full-time
Nurnberg
T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Nurnberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,5
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 21%
32%
9%
Points per game
1,1
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
64%
41%
Both score Ø 48%
50%
45%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
1,1
0,8
Conceded
1,9
2,1
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

74% Possession 26%
18 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 13. · Nurnberg 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 22 15 6 1 +31 51
2 Bayern Munich 23 16 3 4 +25 51
3 M'gladbach 23 13 4 6 +17 43
4 RB Leipzig 22 12 5 5 +22 41
5 Wolfsburg 23 11 5 7 +8 38
6 Leverkusen 22 11 3 8 +7 36
7 Ein Frankfurt 22 9 7 6 +13 34
8 Hoffenheim 22 8 9 5 +12 33
9 Werder Bremen 23 8 8 7 +4 32
10 Hertha 23 8 8 7 +2 32
11 Mainz 23 8 6 9 -10 30
12 Freiburg 23 6 9 8 -4 27
13 Fortuna Dusseldorf 22 7 4 11 -16 25
14 Schalke 04 23 6 5 12 -10 23
15 Augsburg 23 4 6 13 -13 18
16 Stuttgart 23 4 4 15 -32 16
17 Hannover 22 3 5 14 -27 14
18 Nurnberg 22 2 7 13 -29 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fortuna Dusseldorf Nurnberg
4′
🟥 Matheus Pereira
Kaan Ayhan 🟨
13′
24′
🟨 Hanno Behrens
41′
E. Löwen 0–1
Alfredo Morales 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 V. Misidjan
↦ Y. Kubo
R. Hennings 🔁
↦ K. Karaman
62′
M. Ducksch 🔁
↦ D. Kownacki
62′
0–2 Ewerton
own goal
62′
68′
🔁 M. Ishak
↦ A. Zreľák
72′
🟨 Christian Mathenia
Kevin Stöger 🟨
78′
T. Usami 🔁
↦ B. Raman
79′
79′
🔁 L. Jäger
↦ H. Behrens
1–2 K. Ayhan
K. Stöger
83′
89′
🟨 Tim Leibold
90′
🟨 Ewerton
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Fortuna Dusseldorf

4-4-1-1
16 J. Drobný G
35 M. Kamiński D
23 N. Gießelmann D
5 K. Ayhan D
6 A. Morales M
25 M. Zimmermann M
22 K. Stöger M
20 D. Lukebakio F
9 B. Raman M
11 K. Karaman F
27 D. Kownacki F
Bench (7)
28 R. Hennings
10 M. Ducksch
33 T. Usami
7 O. Fink
8 A. Barkok
12 J. Theissen
3 A. Hoffmann

Coach: F. Funkel

Nurnberg

4-5-1
26 C. Mathenia G
22 E. Valentini D
4 Ewerton D
23 T. Leibold D
28 L. Mühl D
18 H. Behrens M
31 O. Petrak M
17 E. Löwen M
14 Y. Kubo F
11 A. Zreľák F
27 Matheus Pereira F
Bench (7)
24 V. Misidjan
9 M. Ishak
20 L. Jäger
29 P. Erras
10 S. Kerk
1 F. Bredlow
8 R. Bauer

Coach: B. Schommers

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Sascha Stegemann · 85 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.