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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Stuttgart

S T S T T

2–3

Full-time

Mainz

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

24%

29%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

59%

47%

Both score Ø 44%

29%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

61% Possession 39%

28 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

14 Corners 8

9 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 16. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Bayern Munich	18	12	3	3	+20	39
3	M'gladbach	17	10	3	4	+18	33
4	RB Leipzig	17	9	4	4	+14	31
5	Wolfsburg	17	8	4	5	+5	28
6	Ein Frankfurt	17	8	3	6	+11	27
7	Hoffenheim	18	6	7	5	+7	25
8	Hertha	17	6	6	5	-1	24
9	Leverkusen	17	7	3	7	-3	24
10	Werder Bremen	17	6	4	7	-1	22
11	Freiburg	17	5	6	6	-4	21
12	Mainz	17	5	6	6	-5	21
13	Schalke 04	17	5	3	9	-4	18
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	5	3	9	-14	18
15	Augsburg	17	3	6	8	-4	15
16	Stuttgart	17	4	2	11	-23	14
17	Hannover	17	2	5	10	-18	11
18	Nurnberg	17	2	5	10	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	M'gladbach	8	8	0	0	+20	24
3	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+18	23
4	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Hertha	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+8	13
7	Hoffenheim	10	3	4	3	+3	13
8	Freiburg	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Mainz	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	-1	13
11	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	0	5	-1	12
14	Stuttgart	8	3	1	4	-9	10
15	Schalke 04	8	3	0	5	-2	9
16	Nurnberg	9	2	3	4	-2	9
17	Augsburg	8	1	4	3	-1	7
18	Hannover	8	2	1	5	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Dortmund	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+4	12
6	Leverkusen	9	3	2	4	-2	11
7	Werder Bremen	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-2	9
9	Schalke 04	9	2	3	4	-2	9
10	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-3	8
12	RB Leipzig	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Mainz	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	3	4	-13	6
16	Hannover	9	0	4	5	-11	4
17	Stuttgart	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Nurnberg	8	0	2	6	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.